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The Cleveland Guardians take on the New York Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS on Thursday. New York leads the series 1-0 after an intense Game 1 victory. Righty Shane Bieber will start on the mound for the Guardians, while southpaw Nestor Cortes takes the bump for the Yankees. The first pitch is slated for 7:47 ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Guardians-Yankees prediction and pick.
Shane Bieber will make his second start of the 2022 postseason on Thursday night. Bieber pitched last Friday's series-opening win against Tampa Bay in the AL Wild Card Round. The 27-year-old allowed just a single run on three hits across 7 2/3 innings of work. He struck out eight Rays hitters.
Bieber's stellar performance to open the playoffs was just par for the course for the 2020 Cy Young winner. The righty was excellent yet again this season. During the regular season, Bieber amassed a 13-8 record across 31 starts. In 200 innings, Bieber maintained a 2.88 ERA and struck out 198 batters. He did not pitch against the Yankees during the regular season but is 1-1 (5.74 ERA) all-time against them. Bieber has never pitched in Yankee Stadium but has generally been better in away games (2.65 ERA).
Nestor Cortes will make his postseason debut for the Yankees on Thursday. Cortes is in the midst of a breakout season for New York. In his first full year as a starter, Cortes has been incredible. He went 12-4 during 28 regular-season starts. Cortes threw 158 1/3 innings but maintained a crisp 2.44 ERA and amassed 163 strikeouts. The lefty started the season on fire, hit a bit of a rough patch during the dog days of summer, but then ended the season strong. In his previous five starts, Cortes allowed just four runs in 27 innings and struck out 30 hitters.
Cortes doesn't throw the hardest, but he has great control and was dominant at home. In 15 starts at Yankee Stadium, Cortes had a 1.95 ERA and lost just one game. He was similarly successful against the Guardians. He drew two starts against Cleveland and in those went 1-0 and allowed just four hits in 12 innings.
Here are the Guardians-Yankees MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Yankees Odds
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-200)
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+164)
Over: 6.5 (-102)
Under: 6.5 (-120)
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
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Cleveland is desperate for a win in Game 2. Despite it being a best-of-five, this is essentially a must-win for the Guardians. Home teams who go up 2-0 in a best-of-five end up winning the series around 90 percent of the time. The Guardians know how important this game is and are sending out their best pitcher Shane Bieber to bring them back to Cleveland with a tied series.
The Guardians have not hit well in the postseason. Although they were not known for their power during the regular season (29th in home runs), they had a solid team batting average (.254) and struck out at the lowest rate in the league. They found unconventional ways to score and came up with key hits during big moments. Outside of Jose Ramirez's two-run home run in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round, they've yet to find that same offensive prowess.
Only three Guardians are batting over .200 this postseason: Jose Ramirez, Oscar Gonzalez, and Myles Straw. For a team that had five players bat over .280 during the regular season, it is only a matter of time before they start to piece together some runs. They outhit the Yankees 6-5 in Game 1 but had two crippling double plays that killed their scoring chances. When making a Guardians-Yankees prediction, it's important to remember the odds. Odds are, Cleveland won't continue to be this inept on offense.
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
The Yankees just keep on rolling. They took care of the Guardians in Game 1, even though Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, and Giancarlo Stanton combined to go 0-for-8. The role players stepping up was a welcome sight for Yankees backers. Midseason acquisition Harrison Bader had a crucial home run to tie the game in the third, while Josh Donaldson had two hits and a walk.
While the supporting cast was better than expected in Game 1, Aaron Judge is bound to heat up soon. Judge has been electric against right-handed pitchers this year and is due for a bounce-back game. He hit over .320 against righties this season compared to just .274 against lefties. If the role players can continue to play well and Judge can recapture his regular-season greatness, New York should win easily against a Guardians team that has scored just four runs in their three playoff games.
Final Guardians-Yankees Prediction & Pick
As good as the Yankees have been this year, there is no way the Guardians can continue to play this poorly offensive. It's just the law of averages. The Yankees may pull it out in the end, but Cleveland should at least be able to keep it close.
Final Guardians-Yankees Prediction & Pick: Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-200)
