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UFC 314: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes continues on the main card with the main event title fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes in the featherweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Volkanovski-Lopes prediction and pick.
Alexander Volkanovski (26-4) enters UFC 314 looking to reclaim the featherweight title after a challenging stretch. Most recently, he suffered a second-round KO loss to Ilia Topuria at UFC 298 in February 2024. Before that, Volkanovski was knocked out by Islam Makhachev in their lightweight rematch at UFC 294. Now, “The Great” seeks redemption against Diego Lopes.
Diego Lopes (26-6) enters UFC 314 riding a five-fight win streak, showcasing his finishing ability and well-rounded game. Most recently, Lopes earned a unanimous decision victory over Brian Ortega at UFC 306 in September 2024. Before that, he stopped Sodiq Yusuff with strikes in the first round at UFC 300. Now, Lopes looks to claim featherweight gold against Alexander Volkanovski.
Here are the UFC 314 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 314 Odds: Alexander Volkanovski-Diego Lopes Odds
Alexander Volkanovski: -142
Diego Lopes: +120
Over 3.5 rounds: -145
Under 3.5 rounds: +114
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Why Alexander Volkanovski Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Ilia Topuria – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 16 (13 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Alexander Volkanovski is well-equipped to defeat Diego Lopes at UFC 314 and reclaim the featherweight title, thanks to his championship-level experience, striking versatility, and relentless pace. Volkanovski’s ability to control distance and dictate the tempo of fights has been a hallmark of his success, allowing him to neutralize dangerous opponents like Max Holloway and Yair Rodriguez. His educated striking, including powerful leg kicks and feints, enables him to disrupt opponents’ rhythm while setting up devastating combinations. Additionally, Volkanovski’s wrestling and clinch work provide an effective counter to Lopes’ grappling-heavy style, ensuring he can keep the fight where he wants it.
While Lopes is a dangerous finisher with a strong submission game, Volkanovski’s fight IQ and cardio give him a significant edge in longer bouts. Lopes has shown a tendency to fade in later rounds, which Volkanovski can exploit by applying constant pressure and wearing him down over time. Furthermore, Volkanovski’s ability to adapt mid-fight ensures he can counter Lopes’ aggressive starts and capitalize on defensive openings. If Volkanovski avoids early submission threats and imposes his pace, he is likely to secure a dominant decision or late finish. Expect “The Great” to showcase his championship pedigree and reclaim the featherweight throne in Miami.
Why Diego Lopes Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Brian Ortega – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 22 (10 KO/TKO/12 SUB)
Diego Lopes is primed to dethrone Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 314, leveraging his relentless grappling pressure and opportunistic finishing ability. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist with 12 career submissions, Lopes’ ability to chain attacks from every position—whether threatening d’arce chokes, armbars, or body-triangle control—creates constant danger. His recent five-fight win streak includes dominant performances against Brian Ortega and Sodiq Yusuff, where he showcased improved striking and an ability to blend punches with takedowns. Against Volkanovski, whose recent knockout losses to Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev exposed durability concerns, Lopes’ aggression could overwhelm the former champion early.
Volkanovski’s 14-month layoff raises questions about his timing and ability to handle Lopes’ unorthodox offense. While Volkanovski excels at range management, Lopes’ clinch power and ground-and-pound disrupt rhythm, as seen in his first-round TKO of Yusuff. Additionally, Lopes’ 58% striking accuracy and relentless pace could exploit Volkanovski’s tendency to absorb damage in exchanges. If Lopes drags the fight into grappling scrambles or capitalizes on Volkanovski’s compromised chin, he’ll secure a career-defining upset and claim the featherweight throne.
Final Alexander Volkanovski-Diego Lopes Prediction & Pick
Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes are set to clash for the vacant featherweight title at UFC 314 in a highly anticipated main event. Volkanovski, the former champion, looks to reclaim his throne after back-to-back losses. Known for his relentless pace, striking versatility, and elite fight IQ, Volkanovski has proven himself against the best in the division. His ability to control range and adapt mid-fight will be crucial against Lopes’ aggressive style.
Lopes, riding a five-fight win streak, has emerged as a legitimate contender with his dynamic grappling and finishing ability. With 15 first-round finishes and a mix of knockouts and submissions, Lopes is dangerous in all areas. However, Volkanovski’s championship experience and durability could give him the edge in a five-round war. If Volkanovski can avoid Lopes’ early onslaught and impose his pace, expect him to secure a decision victory or late stoppage in this thrilling title bout.
Final Alexander Volkanovski-Diego Lopes Prediction & Pick: Alexander Volkanovski (-142), Over 3.5 Rounds (-145)
