Contender Series Week 5 continues with a fight between Anthony Guarascio and Steven Asplund in the heavyweight division on Tuesday. Check out our Contender Series odds series for our Guarascio-Asplund prediction and pick.
Anthony Guarascio (3-0, 1 NC) comes into Week 5 off a pair of first-round knockouts, most recently flattening Bailey Schoenfelder in just 92 seconds at CFFC 141 this April. Still undefeated as a pro, Guarascio has never tasted defeat—his finishing rate and composure mark him as a rising heavyweight threat.
Steven Asplund (5-1) comes to Week 5 after TKO wins over Raiden Kovacs in April and Hammer Morton in January, both inside LFA. His sole professional loss was a second-round rear-naked choke to Denzel Freeman in September 2024. Asplund’s heavy hands and durability mark him as a tough test at heavyweight.
UFC Contender Series Odds: Anthony Guarascio-Steven Asplund Odds
Anthony Guarascio: -195
Steven Asplund: +150
Over 1.5 Rounds: +154
Under 1.5 Rounds: -200
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Why Anthony Guarascio will win
- Last Fight: (W) Bailey Schoenfelder – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 3-0-0, 1 NC
- Finishes: 3 (2 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Anthony Guarascio steps into Week 5 boasting an undefeated record and the kind of devastating knockout power that has become his calling card in the heavyweight division. After starching Bailey Schoenfelder in just 92 seconds, Guarascio’s relentless pressure and elite finishing instincts have made him one of the most intriguing prospects on the card.
Against Steven Asplund, Guarascio’s biggest asset will be his ability to start fast and capitalize on any defensive lapses. Asplund has been finished by submission before, but his tendency to take strikes while hunting for his own shots makes him vulnerable to Guarascio’s quick right hand and well-timed counters. If Guarascio dictates the range and keeps Asplund from settling into a rhythm, he’ll create the openings he needs to land something significant early.
Guarascio’s composure and finishing rate also mean he thrives in broken exchanges, punishing opponents who don’t respect his power. He’s shown the ability to remain patient, forcing opponents into errors rather than forcing his offense. Expect Guarascio to push the pace, control the center, and eventually overwhelm Asplund with a barrage that leads to a first- or second-round knockout.
A dynamic win here would not only keep Guarascio’s record spotless but could propel him into immediate UFC relevance.
Why Steven Asplund will win
- Last Fight: (W) Raiden Kovacs – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 (4 KO/TKO)
Steven Asplund enters his Week 5 showdown with Anthony Guarascio as a proven finisher with the kind of heavyweight grit that can break an unbeaten prospect. Riding back-to-back TKO victories in LFA, Asplund combines aggression with surprising pressure and the ability to negate opponents’ early bursts through resilience and calculated counterattacks.
Against Guarascio, Asplund’s key advantage is his experience in weathering adversity and capitalizing as fights progress. While Guarascio has looked dominant in the opening minutes, Asplund’s durability and tough clinch game can sap his rival’s cardio and force him into uncomfortable, grinding grappling situations. If Asplund survives the early storm and begins working his body shots and cage control, he’ll draw Guarascio into deep water—the uncharted rounds where questions about his composure remain.
With a wider skillset and proven ability to finish late, Asplund can frustrate Guarascio by surviving explosive moments and then pouring on offense as his opponent slows. His sole loss, via submission, has sharpened his awareness for defensive holes, making him more responsible under fire. Expect Asplund to turn the tide in the second round with clinch pressure and steady strikes, securing a referee stoppage or grinding out a signature decision win.
Final Anthony Guarascio-Steven Asplundo Prediction & Pick
Anthony Guarascio vs. Steven Asplund promises fireworks in the heavyweight main event of Week 5 on the Contender Series. Guarascio brings an undefeated record surrounded by highlight-reel knockouts, including his blistering 92-second finish over Bailey Schoenfelder, while Asplund arrives with a reputation for grit and comeback power, punctuated by recent back-to-back TKOs in LFA.
Early momentum should favor Guarascio, whose fast starts and surgical finishing instincts can overwhelm opponents unprepared for his pace. Expect him to take the center immediately, looking to land heavy combinations and force Asplund into exchanges—where the risk of a quick knockout looms large. If Guarascio connects early, another quick finish is very possible.
However, Asplund’s experience in grinding brawls means he is never truly out until the final horn. If he can weather Guarascio’s storm and begin implementing his clinch work and body shots, the balance could shift as the fight heads into the second round. His durability and gas tank give him a real shot at turning the tide as Guarascio slows.
Ultimately, the prediction leans toward Guarascio’s destructive power and finishing ability. Look for an emphatic first-round KO, but if Asplund survives, his resolve could test Guarascio’s mettle for the first time as a pro.
Final Anthony Guarascio-Steven Asplund Prediction & Pick: Anthony Guarascio (-195), Under 1.5 Rounds (-200)
