UFC Rio: Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen kicks off the prelims with a fight between Melissa Croden and Tainara Lisboa in the women's flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Croden-Lisboa prediction and pick.
Melissa Croden (6-2) enters her UFC debut, riding a two-fight win streak that includes a second-round TKO over Ashley Deen and a gritty decision against Katharina Lehner in LFA competition. All her wins have come by finish, making her debut highly anticipated as she comes into his fight this weekend against Tainara Lisboa.
Tainara Lisboa (7-3) enters UFC Vancouver, having recently dropped a submission loss to Luana Santos after earning a gritty unanimous-decision win over Ravena Oliveira. Known for her Muay Thai striking and submission skills, she looks to rebound as she comes into his fight this weekend against Melissa Croden.
Here are the UFC Vancouver Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vancouver odds: Melissa Croden-Tainara Lisboa odds
Melissa Croden: -120
Tainara Lisboa: +100
Over 2.5 rounds: -215
Under 2.5 rounds: +165
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Why Melissa Croden will win
- Last Fight: (W) Ashley Deen – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 6 (5 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Melissa Croden is poised for a breakout performance in her debut at UFC Vancouver due to her finishing instinct, power striking, and psychological edge fighting on home soil. All six of her professional wins have come by stoppage, including five knockouts, showing she brings relentless aggression and diverse finishing ability every time she steps in the cage.
Her recent Legacy Fighting Alliance form, which included a TKO against Ashley Deen and a hard-fought win over Katharina Lehner, displayed Croden’s capacity to maintain composure and pace in high-pressure situations. With a long layoff behind her, Croden enters this bout hungry and sharper than ever, determined to make her Octagon debut count for both her career and Canadian fans.
Tainara Lisboa, while dangerous with her grappling and Muay Thai, struggled in her last outing against Luana Santos, particularly under heavy top pressure and ground exchanges. If Croden can fend off early grappling threats and use her clinch strength to keep the fight standing, she should be able to capitalize on Lisboa’s vulnerabilities—especially if Lisboa gets desperate as the fight wears on.
Given Croden’s ability to swarm, her finishing experience, and a passionate crowd behind her, she holds a clear path to victory as she aims to overwhelm Lisboa and announce herself to the UFC bantamweight division in style.
Why Tainara Lisboa will win
- Last Fight: (L) Luana Santos – SUB R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 6 (3 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Tainara Lisboa holds a clear experience edge entering UFC Vancouver with three UFC fights already under her belt and a proven record against tough opposition. This octagon familiarity gives her the composure and poise to handle the UFC spotlight, unlike the debuting Croden, whose finishing streak remains untested at this level.
Lisboa’s diverse skill set, blending Muay Thai striking with slick submissions, gives her multiple avenues to victory. Her ability to transition from striking to grappling makes her particularly dangerous against opponents who rely on forward pressure and power, like Croden, whose ground game and takedown defense haven’t been fully pushed in elite competition.
Analysts point to Lisboa’s disciplined footwork and superior grappling as keys to breaking Croden’s aggressive rhythm. If Lisboa can mix in takedowns and keep Croden guessing, she’ll be able to control the tempo, drag the fight into later rounds, and exploit potential cardio or defensive gaps in Croden’s game.
Expect Lisboa to weather early storms, apply her UFC-caliber experience and capitalize on her well-rounded arsenal to secure either a late submission or a convincing decision as she silences the crowd in Vancouver and adds another win to her rising UFC resume.
Final Melissa Croden-Tainara Lisboa prediction & pick
This bantamweight showdown between Melissa Croden and Tainara Lisboa at UFC Vancouver is a compelling clash of styles and narratives destined for fireworks. Croden enters the octagon with a perfect finishing rate, riding significant momentum from her regional dominance and knockout power while drawing extra motivation from a lively Canadian crowd for her homecoming debut.
Lisboa brings more UFC experience and an arsenal blending Muay Thai and submission grappling, giving her legitimate paths to win both on the feet and on the mat. She’s proven resilient inside the octagon and is motivated to rebound from her most recent submission setback, aiming to spoil Croden’s big moment against a relatively untested newcomer at this level.
Early, Croden’s aggression and heavy hands could threaten a quick stoppage, especially if she establishes her range and tempo. However, it’s Lisboa’s ability to mix her striking with timely takedowns and wear on Croden’s cardio that might tip the contest in her favor as the rounds progress.
Expect a competitive opening, but Lisboa’s savvy and well-rounded game could allow her to survive early pressure and take over late. Ultimately, Lisboa wins via close decision, handing Croden her first UFC loss after a hard-fought debut.
Final Melissa Croden-Tainara Lisboa Prediction & Pick: Tainara Lisboa (+100), Over 2.5 Rounds (-215)
