The UFC Vancouver Main Card is finally here as we're set to bring you a betting prediction and pick for this opening bout taking place in the Lightweight (155) Division. Canada's own Kyle Nelson will take on Florida's Matt Frevola in an extremely close fight on the betting lines. Check out our UFC odds series for the Nelson-Frevola prediction and pick.
Kyle Nelson (16-6-1) has gone 4-5-1 inside the UFC since 2018. After winning three consecutive bouts against the likes of Bill Algeo, Fernando Padilla, and Blake Bilder, Nelson dropped his last bout via knockout and was heavy on the scales. He'll be looking for redemption as the slightest betting underdog. Nelson stands 5-foot-11 with a 71-inch reach.
Matt Frevola (11-5-1) has gone 5-5-1 since joining the UFC roster in 2018. He saw a three-fight winning streak of his own, but has suffered back-to-back losses by knockout at the hands of Benoit Saint-Denis and Fares Ziam. Now, he'll be looking to rebound as the betting favorite in this matchup. Frevola stands 5-foot-9 with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vancouver Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vancouver odds: Kyle Nelson-Matt Frevola odds
Kyle Nelson: +105
Matt Frevola: -125
Over 2.5 rounds: +140
Under 2.5 rounds: -180
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Kyle Nelson will win
- Last Fight: (L) Steve Garcia – TKO (elbows, R1)
- Last 5: 3-1-1
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Kyle Nelson comes in following a tough outing against Steve Garcia where he couldn't get anything going and was finished rather quickly. Coming in heavy on the scales, it wasn't the proudest showing for Nelson, and we've seen him capable of much better in the past. Fighting in front of his home-country fans, expect Kyle Nelson to be much more technical and sound coming into this appearance.
Kyle Nelson is very good at implementing a specific game plan and exploiting his opponents' weaknesses with his own offense. He's become a very solid and technical striker over the years, and his striking defense has been even better, defending 51% of strikes coming back his way. He's also a solid wrestler and can steal control time against the fence if he's able to secure a favorable angle.
Nelson's key to victory during this fight will be pushing the pace, connecting on high strikes when he closes the distance and clinching with Frevola along the fence to negate his offense. If Nelson can do all this while still controlling any grappling exchanges, he should do enough to find the upset.
Why Matt Frevola will win
- Last Fight: (L) Fares Ziam– TKO (knee, R3)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Matt Frevola also looked flat during his latest appearance as he was clearly beaten and battered by the third round. Through the first two rounds, Frevola was throwing everything behind his strikes but repeatedly had a hard time connecting due to the reach discrepancy. He'll have a much better physical matchup against Nelson, so don't be surprised if Frevola becomes additionally aggressive with this forward pressure.
Matt Frevola is also a very solid grappler, and although his takedown defense isn't great at 38%, he's very skilled in keeping opponents on their back and controlling with top pressure. Nelson has notably fallen to submission in the past, so don't be surprised if Frevola jumps on the neck or takes the back if he's able to drop Nelson at any point.
Frevola is the betting favorite during this matchup but not by much, so it's essential for him to respect his opponent and not rush into any unnecessary offense. He's been known to blitz opponents with combinations in the past, and it's worked well, but a more measured and methodical approach could be necessary in securing the victory over Kyle Nelson.
Final Kyle Nelson-Matt Frevola prediction & pick
This is another extremely close stylistic matchup as both fighters are very well-rounded in all areas. Both men are very strong grapplers, and while we may see some exchanges along the fence, I don't expect these two to spend much time on the ground.
Frevola certainly has the power advantage, but we've seen Nelson sport the better striking techniques and has the more sound defense. If he can manage to keep a safe distance and hit Frevola consistently with his offense, he should be able to dictate the pace and where this fight takes place.
Furthermore, if he's winning the first two rounds, we like Nelson's chances to secure ground control in the third round and ride out a decision victory. The home Canadian fans should give him an added boost of motivation, so don't be afraid backing the short underdog in this fight.
Final Kyle Nelson-Matt Frevola Prediction & Pick: Kyle Nelson (+105)
