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Arizona faces Duke in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats looked great in their first two games, but they are facing the best team in college basketball this season in Duke with all of the Blue Devils' talent. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Arizona-Duke prediction and pick.
Arizona is 24-12 and beat Akron and Oregon to start their tourney run. They have notable wins against Baylor twice, Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech twice, and Kansas. They have had significant losses to Wisconsin, Duke, UCLA, Texas Tech, Houston twice, BYU, Iowa State, and Kansas. Caleb Love is the biggest key for Arizona, and they need him to have a monster game. It also helps that he has a history as a Duke killer.
Duke is 33-3 entering this game, with notable wins against Arizona, Auburn, Louisville twice, SMU, and North Carolina three times. They also have losses to Kentucky, Kansas, and Clemson. They have so much talent, and it starts with Cooper Flagg. Kon Kneuppel has also been a huge key, with these two being a dynamic freshman duo. This is a massive game for Duke to keep marching on and get a win.
Here are the Arizona-Duke College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
2025 March Madness Tournament Odds: Arizona-Duke Odds
Arizona: +9.5 (-112)
Moneyline: +330
Duke: -9.5 (-108)
Moneyline: -430
Over: 153.5 (-114)
Under: 153.5 (-106)
How to Watch Arizona vs. Duke
Time: 9:39 pm ET/6:39 pm PT
TV: CBS
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Arizona Will Cover The Spread/Win
Arizona started slow but has quickly become one of the best offenses in the country. They score 82.2 points per game, have a field-goal percentage of 47.5%, and have a three-point percentage of 33.4%. This offense is also 13th in adjusted offense, rating 122.9 on KenPom.
Three Wildcats are averaging more than double digits, and Caleb Love is the best scorer on the team, averaging 16.8 points per game. Regarding ball movement, they are in the top 40, averaging 16.3 assists per game, and the leader is Jaden Bradley, averaging 3.7 per game.
The Wildcats go as this backcourt goes between Bradley and Love. Tommy Lloyd's team's offense is its calling card, and it can slice through this Duke defense. Arizona has the physicality needed against Duke, but this is still a massive challenge.
Arizona's defense has been solid but also inconsistent this season. They allow 72.5 points per game, 41.5% from the field, and 33.5% from behind the arc. This defense is ranked 28th in KenPom in adjusted defense, with a rating of 96.6.
Arizona's frontcourt has also been solid. Tobe Awaka has been a beast down low and the most consistent rebounder, leading the team with eight rebounds per game. Two players average at least one block, and Henri Veesar leads the team with 1.1 per game this season.
The Wildcats made a point of getting tougher on defense, and while they have been better, they are still struggling during specific stretches on this side of the court. They can't afford those lapses against a Duke offense that has weapons all over the place.
Why Duke Will Cover The Spread/Win
Duke's offense has been great, and it might be the best in college basketball. They score 83.2 points per game and have a 49.2% field goal percentage and a 38.1% three-point shooting percentage. They are also the top-ranked adjusted offense in KenPom, with a rating of 129.2.
Three Blue Devils are averaging over double digits in scoring, with Flagg leading the team with 18.7 points per game. Kneuppel and Tyrese Proctor are next up in scoring. Flagg also leads the team in assists with 4.2 per game. This offense is also top 30 in ball movement, averaging 16.9 assists per game.
The Duke offense revolves around Cooper Flagg, whether down low or on the wing. The Blue Devils handed Flagg the keys, and he has excelled and carried this offense to the point where they are playing as well as they are. They have so many weapons on offense, and they can attack Arizona in various ways.
The Blue Devils' defense has been great, and there's a legitimate argument that it is better than their offense. They allow 61.7 points per game, 38.3% from the field, and 30.5% from behind the arc. They are fourth in KenPom with an adjusted defensive rating of 90.2.
Flagg has been nearly as good on defense as on offense this year. He leads the team in rebounds at 7.5 per game and blocks at 1.3 per game. Khaman Maluach is second in rebounding and blocks with 6.7 and 1.2 per game. Their on-ball defense has also been solid. Three players average at least one steal, and Flagg leads the team with 1.4 steals per game.
The Blue Devils have their X-factor in Flagg, and he changes the way this defense operates. Maluach is also a beast down low, making this defense one of the best remaining in the tournament. They have their hands full against Love and this Arizona offense.
Final Arizona-Duke Prediction & Pick
Arizona has the offense to make Duke's game difficult and competitive. Duke has not played in many close games this year, which is an advantage for Arizona. Still, Duke is just better and will win, but Arizona keeps this close and covers the spread because it's too big.
Final Arizona-Duke Prediction & Pick: Arizona +9.5 (-112)
