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The MLB season continues as the Houston Astros look to pick up the win on the road in Kansas City when they take on the Royals in their series opener on Friday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with an Astros-Royals prediction and pick.
Astros-Royals Projected Starters
Hayden Wesneski vs. Seth Lugo
Hayden Wesneski (1-1) with a 3.91 ERA and 0.87 WHIP
Last Start: Wesneski gave up two runs on six hits with four strikeouts and a walk over five innings during Saturday's 3-2 win against the Padres. He did not factor in the decision.
Away Splits: Wesneski was solid in his lone start on the road this season. He gave up two earned runs on three hits while striking out five across seven innings against the Mariners.
Seth Lugo (1-3) with a 3.90 ERA and
Last Start: Lugo took the loss Saturday, giving up three runs on five hits and two walks over 6.2 innings as the Royals fell 3-1 to the Tigers. He struck out five.
Home Splits: Lugo has been better at home than on the road to start the season, where he is 1-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in three starts.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-Royals Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+146)
Moneyline: -116
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-176)
Moneyline: -102
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
How to Watch Astros vs. Reds
Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40 PM PT
TV: MLB Extra Innings
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Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
Hayden Wesneski and the Houston Astros are primed to outduel Seth Lugo and the Kansas City Royals on Friday, thanks to a combination of Wesneski’s evolving arsenal and Houston’s deeper lineup. Wesneski, since joining the Astros, has added a curveball and increased his changeup usage, both of which have been highly effective; opponents are hitting .000 against those pitches this year. His sweeper and cutter have also stifled hitters, with righties slashing just .216/.256/.568 and lefties an anemic .074/.138/.185 through his first three starts. While the long ball remains a concern, Houston’s pitching development has already elevated Wesneski’s consistency and strikeout rates, making him a high-floor option who can neutralize a Royals lineup that has struggled to score, averaging just 2.96 runs per game, dead last in MLB.
On the other side, Seth Lugo remains a reliable veteran, but his early-season numbers, 1-3 record, 3.90 ERA, and 1.23 WHIP reflect some regression after last year’s Cy Young-caliber campaign. The Royals’ offense is heavily reliant on Bobby Witt Jr., with little production from the supporting cast, and their inability to add a true middle-of-the-order bat in the offseason has left them vulnerable in close games. The Astros, meanwhile, have a balanced lineup anchored by Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Isaac Paredes, providing run support that should tip the scales in Wesneski’s favor. With Wesneski’s improved repertoire and the Astros’ offensive depth, expect Houston to capitalize on Kansas City’s offensive woes and secure the win on Friday.
Why The Royals Will Cover The Spread/Win
Seth Lugo and the Kansas City Royals are poised to take down Hayden Wesneski and the Houston Astros on Friday, thanks to Lugo’s consistency and a quietly surging Royals lineup. Lugo’s 2025 campaign, while not as dominant as his 2024 breakout, has been marked by quality starts and the ability to limit damage. He’s posted a 3.90 ERA over 30 innings, with only six home runs allowed and a respectable 1.23 WHIP. At home, Lugo has been even more effective, pitching to a 3.24 ERA in three starts at Kauffman Stadium, where he’s been able to generate weak contact and keep the Royals in games. His veteran presence and control should help him navigate a Houston lineup that, despite recent wins, has shown streakiness and is still searching for consistent production from newcomers like Christian Walker.
Offensively, Kansas City’s fortunes are turning with the emergence of Maikel Garcia, who has become a legitimate top-of-the-order threat. Garcia’s advanced metrics, top 8% in average exit velocity and top 4% in hard-hit rate, signal a real breakout, giving the Royals a much-needed spark alongside Bobby Witt Jr.. If Garcia maintains his pace and the rest of the lineup, including Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez, starts to click, Kansas City’s offense could finally provide the run support Lugo needs. With Lugo’s steady hand on the mound and Garcia’s bat leading the way, the Royals have the formula to outlast Wesneski and the Astros in a tightly contested matchup.
Final Astros-Royals Prediction & Pick
Expect a tightly contested game as Seth Lugo takes the mound for the Royals against Hayden Wesneski and the Astros. Lugo’s home-field advantage and recent consistency give Kansas City a slight edge, especially with Maikel Garcia and Bobby Witt Jr. heating up at the plate. While Houston’s lineup is always dangerous, look for the Royals’ pitching and timely hitting to secure a narrow victory in this Friday night showdown.
Final Astros-Royals Prediction & Pick: Royals ML (-102), Under 8 (-110)
