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A Big 12 showdown with major implications on the line this weekend will be on tap as the Baylor Bears head to the “Little Apple” to take on the Kansas State Wildcats. It is about that time to check out our college football odds series where our Baylor-Kansas State prediction and pick will be made.
Without a doubt, Baylor has taken a major step back this season and are on the brink of finding themselves unable to reach bowl eligibility with a loss to Kansas State this weekend. A year ago, the Bears happened to reach the six-win threshold and even made an appearance in the Armed Forces Bowl despite losing to Air Force in that contest. After enduring heartbreak last weekend in an overtime loss to Houston, can the Bears find a way to survive with only three games remaining?
Similarly to Baylor, there is no question that Kansas State wants to get that bad taste out of their mouth as well from a week ago where they also went down in defeat in overtime to a top-ten Texas squad. At one point in the season, the Wildcats controlled their own destiny at defending their Big 12 title crown from a year ago, but that is now in question. Can KSU get back on track ate home versus Baylor?
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Baylor-Kansas State Odds
Baylor: +21.5 (-114)
Kansas State: -21.5 (-106)
Over: 55.5 (-110)
Under: 55.5 (-110)
How to Watch Baylor vs. Kansas State Week 10
Time: 3:00 ET/12:00 PT
TV: Big 12/ESPN+
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Baylor Will Cover The Spread
At first glance, this matchup between conference foes could be a lot closer than it appears. Despite the Bears being roughly three-touchdown underdogs to the Wildcats on the road, Baylor has covered in two of their last three games overall and are right on the cusp of a big-time upset.
In addition, their most recent performance against Houston was encouraging to say the least. Not only did the Bears out-gain the Cougars 413-366 and happened to control the time of possession, they also won the turnover battle by forcing a pair of giveaways. However, defeat still somehow occurred for Baylor, as they must find a way to close the door shut this weekend off the want to shock Kansas State.
Not to mention, Baylor could end up covering the spread if they continue to air the ball out to perfection. All in all, the Bears are averaging 277.2 passing yards which is ranked as the 30th most in the entirety of college football. Even more so, this passing offense is scheduled to go up against a K-State secondary that is prone to giving up large chunk plays through the airs. Clearly, Baylor struggles mightily in running the football, and if they can establish any type of threat on the ground, then the Bears should be able to make some much-needed noise.
Why Kansas State Will Cover The Spread
Meanwhile, the Wildcats entered the 2023 season with lofty expectations considering they do happen to be the defending Big 12 Champs, and despite KSU already owning three losses next to their names, this is still a solid group.
Only a few plays going their way was all that separated Kansas State from knocking off Texas, but alas, the effort barely come up short. Nevertheless, Kansas State's best chances at covering the spread will happen to come in the form of a balanced attack on both sides of the field. Despite surrendering 478 yards of offense against the Longhorns, the Wildcats' defense was opportunistic and proved their ability to bend but not break. In fact, it ended up being the KSU defense that wreaked havoc by forcing three Texas turnovers which helped them almost pull off the unthinkable. In like manner, flying around defensively and shutting down the Baylor passing attack will be critical.
Most importantly, bettors who are planning on putting an extra few dollars on the Wildcats should keep their eyes peeled on how K-State plays in the first half of this one. After falling 17-0 to Texas, it took all of KSU's energy to get back in the game as they eventually ran out of gas in the critical moments. In order to not let this happen again, the Wildcats will most likely make a strong effort to dominate both lines of scrimmage to enforce their will.
Final Baylor-Kansas State Prediction & Pick
On paper, Baylor has far too many holes on both sides of the ball to be competitive in this one. At the same time, Kansas State is ranked nationally in the top 20 both offensively and defensively which will be telling by the time this contest hits triple zeroes.
Final Baylor-Kansas State Prediction & Pick: Kansas State -21.5 (-106)
