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Bellator 301: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Jason Jackson kicks off the main card with a fight in the semifinals of the Bellator Lightweight Grand Prix between the former lightweight champion Patricky Freire and Alexander Shabliy. Freire defied the odds and beat short-notice replacement Roberto de Souza in the opening round of the Grand Prix meanwhile, Shabliy dominated in the first round of the Grand Prix beating Tofiq Musayev via third-round TKO. With that said, check out our Bellator odds series for our Freire-Shabliy prediction and pick.
Patricky Freire (25-11) turned back time and looked like the old Patricky Pitbull when he finished RIZIN's Roberto de Souza via leg kicks in the quarterfinals of Bellator's Lightweight Grand Prix. He showed that he still has what it takes to be at the top of the lightweight division and he will attempt to show that again as he takes on the dangerous surging contender Alexander Shabliy on Friday night.
Alexander Shabliy (23-3) has been on an absolute tear winning eight straight fights as he comes into the biggest fight of his career when he takes on Patricky Freire. He will be looking to punch his ticket to the finale when steps into the Bellator cage to take on the former Bellator lightweight champion Patricky Freire.
Here are the Bellator Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Bellator 301 Odds: Patricky Freire-Alexander Shabliy Odds
Patricky Freire: +500
Alexander Shabliy: -700
Over 2.5 Rounds: -145
Under 2.5 Rounds: +114
How to Watch Patricky Freire vs. Alexander Shabliy
TV: Showtime
Stream: Showtime
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET/ 6:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
Why Patricky Freire Will Win
Patricky Freire was once considered the best lightweight in Bellator after winning the vacant lightweight championship after defeating Peter Queally. That was short-lived when he attempted to defend his title against the now-suspended and former lightweight champion Usman Nurmagomedov who defeated him via unanimous decision.
Freire will be looking to recapture what he believes is rightfully his, the lightweight championship but he will need to get past the very dangerous Alexander Shabliy at Bellator 301. Shabliy is a well-rounded fighter who has the ability to stand and trade with Freire on the feet or take it to the mat and control the fight there as well. With that said, Shabliy has been able to dispatch opponents who weren't championship-caliber. Freire has a load of experience against elite-level competition, already capturing the lightweight title, and with five-round experience could swing the tides in Freire's favor in this matchup.
Why Alexander Shabliy Will Win
Alexander Shabliy came into his Bellator career with four straight wins and has kept his winning ways going winning all four of his fights inside the Bellator cage. He most recently won his last two fights emphatically with back-to-back finishes of Tofiq Musayev who couldn't continue after a kick to the body and former lightweight champion Brent Primus who Shabliy knocked out in the second round.
He now has his eyes set on taking out yet another former champion Patricky Freire when they go to battle at Bellator 301 on Friday night. Shabliy has been nothing short of sensational during his time with Bellator. He has shown the ability to beat the opposition no matter where this fight takes place and this matchup against Freire should be no different. If Freire can fight his fight and dictate where this fight takes place he can get the biggest win of his career and punch his ticket to the Lightweight Grand Prix finales.
Final Patricky Freire-Alexander Shabliy Prediction & Pick
These two lightweight contenders square off in the semifinal matchup in Bellator's Lightweight Grand Prix as they kick off the main card. This should be a great scrap between these two fighters who will be gunning for a spot in the finals of the Grand Prix. Freire is at his best when he is dictating the pace of this fight and fighting with forward pressure while hammering his opponent with calf kicks like he did to Roberto de Souza.
Unfortunately for him, that is a lot easier said than done against someone like Alexander Shabliy. Shabliy has the ability to come in and out of range effortlessly while throwing a wide range of attacks to keep someone like Freire from just coming forward with reckless pressure. Ultimately, these two will go to war for 25 minutes but it will be Shabliy who will be getting the better of the exchanges and will be landing the much more telling shots he will mix in the takedowns as he puts on a well-rounded display of MMA to get his hand raised and his shot in the Grand Prix finale.
Final Patricky Freire-Alexander Shabliy Prediction & Pick: Alexander Shabliy (-700), Over 2.5 Rounds (-145)
