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The Atlanta Braves took game one of this NL East series with the Philadelphia Phillies. It is now time to continue our MLB odds series with a Braves-Phillies prediction, pick, and how-to-watch
The Braves have now won seven straight games. Spencer Strider was great again in the win. He went six innings and gave up just one run while striking out nine batters. Strider has now struck out 300 batters in just 35 starts, joining Dwight Gooden as the only other pitcher in history to do that. Matt Olson and Austin Riley added home runs in the game to help lead the Braves to a 4-2 victory. The Phillies' offense struggled when they had opportunities. They had 11 hits last night but went just 1-12 with runners in scoring position.
Here are the Braves-Phillies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Phillies Odds
Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-184)
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+152)
Over: 8.5 (-118)
Under: 8.5 (-104)
How To Watch Braves vs. Phillies
TV: BSSO/NBCSP
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
The Braves did not have a major offensive outing last night, but it was enough to get them the win. Still, the Braves host one of the best offenses in the majors. They sit first in the majors in slugging, second in OBP and batting average, and third, in runs scored this year. Last night Matt Olson hit his 23rd home run of the season, which ties him for third in the majors. Olson is getting hot as of late. In his last five games, he has three home runs and seven RBIs. He is hitting just .232 on the month, but in the last five games that is up to .300
Joining him in hitting well is Ronald Acuna Jr. Acuna has been great all year, but he has been extra hot in June. He is hitting .333 this month with four home runs and 15 RBIS, adding another last night. He also stole his eighth base of the month last night. Acuna now sits tied for second in the majors in batting average, while sitting fourth in OPS. Ozzie Albies is the team leader in RBIs as of now. He is tied for sixth in the majors with 53 RBIs on the year. He added another RBI last night as well, giving him ten RBIs in his last six games. Albies has 17 this month while hitting six home runs and batting .323.
The Braves send AJ Smith-Shawver to make his third start of his career in this one. He has been solid in his first two starts. He has pitched 11 innings while giving up five runs. Only three of them are earned as he has a 1-0 record with a 2.03 ERA on the season. Last time out, he gave up two home runs, and his fly ball rate was high. If he can get back to keeping the ball on the ground, he should avoid the power of the Phillies' bats in this one.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies' offense struggled last night and has scored just eight runs in the last three games. This is a far cry from the 30 runs they scored in the previous four games. They are currently ninth in batting average while sitting 11th in slugging, 14th in OBP, and 18th in runs scored. Kyle Schwarber has two more hits last night but did not drive in a run. He has been hitting a lot better as of late. Schwarber has seven home runs this month while driving in 14 runs. He is batting .264, and while that is not amazing, it is much higher than his .191 average this year. He is walking a lot though, sitting with a .376 OBP this month.
Nick Castellanos did drive in a run last night. It was his 15th of the month. Castellanos has been hot all month long. He is hitting .400 this month with an OBP of .431. That brings his average to .315 on the season, which is good for sixth in the majors. He now has hits in seven straight games, while he has driven in seven runs in that time frame. Bryce Harper is also starting to pick up again. He has just eight RBIs and does not have a home run this month, but he has nine hits in his last six games. In that time, he is hitting .333, well above his month long average of .284.
Aaron Nola will be on the mound today for the Phillies. He is 6-5 on the season with a 4.66 ERA. His last two starts have not gone well for Nola. He has pitched 13 innings and given up ten runs in those starts. Nola has also struggled with giving up home runs this year. He has given up a home run in each of his last 11 games. He has also given up a home run in 13 of his 15 starts overall. Still, Nola has been striking out a lot of batters. He has averaged 8.84 strikeouts this year per nine innings. That is nearly a strikeout inning for Nola. If he can avoid giving up the longball today, he should be in line for a solid start.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The Braves ended the hot streak of the Phillies last night while continuing their own. Still, it was a fairly close game and Strider is what made the difference. Smith-Shawver has been very good in his first two starts of his career, but he is not Spencer Strider. The Braves are going to have to score more than four runs tonight to get the win. That could be doable against Nola.
With Nola struggling to keep balls in the yard, players like Albie, Acuna Jr., Riley, and Olson could easily tee off on him. The Braves have hit the most home runs in the league this year and it is not close. They have 11 more home runs than the second place Rays. Nola is tied for eighth in the majors in home runs given up this year. Expect a few more to be added to the total today with a Braves win.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Braves +1.5 (-184)
