The Sweet 16 of the NCAA March Madness tournament is here and the real fun will begin when top seeds begin facing off when it matters most. Heading to the South Region, the No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini will take on the No. 2 Houston Cougars in what should be one of the round's better matchups. Check our March Madness odds series for the Illinois-Houston prediction and pick.
Illinois Basketball advances to the Sweet 16 following a 105-70 win over No. 14 Penn in the first round, followed up by a 76-55 win over No. 11 VCU in the second round. They're no strangers to playing top teams in the country and will have their toughest test of the season in a hostile Houston environment.
Houston Basketball took down No. 15 Idaho 78-47 in the first round and beat No. 10 Texas A&M 88-57 to advance to the Sweet 16. A favorite to win it all, they'll be playing at home in Houston, Texas with a ton of crowd support, favored by a slim margin to earn a back-to-back Elite 8 berth.
NCAA March Madness odds courtesy of DraftKings
Illinois vs. Houston Odds
Illinois: +2.5 (-108)
Houston: -2.5 (-112)
Over: 140.5 (-105)
Under: 140.5 (-115)
Illinois vs. Houston Key Injuries
Neither team has any major injuries to report as both starting lineups remain intact through the first two rounds.
Illinois vs. Houston Betting Trends
- The Houston Cougars are 9-2 at neutral site games this season. The Illinois Illini are 4-3.
- Houston is 30-4 when listed as betting favorites. Illinois has gone 3-3 as the underdog.
- Houston is 1-0 all-time against Illinois in the NCAA Tournament (Mar. 20, 2022).
- Houston is 18-18 ATS overall. Illinois is 20-14 ATS overall.
- Houston is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
- Both teams are 2-0 ATS through this tournament.
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston's last 16 games.
Keys to Illinois vs. Houston Matchup
These two schools meet in the tournament yet again following Houston's most recent knockoff of Illinois in 2022 during the Round of 32. Illinois has made significant strides since then and have been a sleeper team to win it all this season, finally proving their muscle throughout this tournament. Head coach Kelvin Sampson and the Houston Cougars are determined to return to the Championship game, however, and will have a massive advantage with this being a home game in Houston, Texas.
The Illini are shooting are slightly higher 46.4% on field goals compared to Houston's 44.7%, but the Cougars have been known to focus their game on the defensive end of the floor. They're averaging 7.8 average steals through these first two games with Illinois averaging just under 9 turnovers, so expect the Cougars to be in the passing lanes all night with active defense.
Still, Illinois is the better rebounding team (40.8 RPG) compared to Houston (36.7 RPG) through this tournament, but they'll have to make their money on the offensive side of the ball. Andrej Stojakovic lifted them with 21 points off the bench in their last game and adding nine attempts from the line, but expect a much better effort out of Keaton Wagler who totaled 18 points, seven assists, and seven rebounds during their first round matchup.
For the Cougars, watch freshman guard Kingston Flemings to continue having a massive impact for them on both sides of the ball. He's a perfect guard who's willing to push the ball up the floor in Sampson's style of offense and isn't afraid to draw contact around the rim. He's also shooting 38.8% from beyond the arc in this tournament, so expect Houston to come right back at Illinois with some streaky shooting of their own.
Illinois vs. Houston Prediction and Pick
This should be an instant classic as both teams are capable of winning this entire tournament. While their first two games of this tournament were lopsided wins, we immediately see two things come to light: the lockdown defense of Houston and the consistent scoring from the Illinois offense. From a coaching standpoint, we have to give the edge to Houston's Kelvin Sampson and his determination for another championship run.
This game will be full of NBA talent and we should see a ton of isolation play from Illinois and transition offense from Houston. Houston's defense should be the biggest deciding factor during this game, but the home crowd advantage for the Cougars may be what puts them over the top. The Cougars are capable of making any team struggled from the field and it'll be exceptionally difficult for Illinois to find any rhythm in this environment.
For our final prediction, we'll roll with the Houston Cougars to win and cover the spread in what is basically a home game for them, a spot they've gone 15-1 this season. They'll advance to their second-straight Elite 8 while eliminating Illinois for the second time in five tournaments.
Final Illinois-Houston Sweet 16 Prediction & Pick: Houston Cougars -2.5 (-112); UNDER 140.5 (-115)
