The UFC is back in action as we're set for another Fight Night card from Seattle, Washington opening with this Women's Strawweight (115) bout. Fellow Brazilians face off as No. 13 Alexa Thainara takes on Bruna Brasil in a rematch seven years in the making. Check our UFC odds series for the Thainara-Brasil prediction and pick.
Alexa Thainara (13-1) makes her third UFC appearance following back-to-back victories over Molly McCann and Loma Lookboonmee. After earning a Contender Series bid, she's made a quick rise to the top-15 and hopes to keep her momentum rolling as the card's second-longest favorite. Thainara stands 5-foot-4 with a 67-inch reach.
Bruna Brasil (11-6-1) is 3-4 inside the UFC since 2023, alternating wins and losses consistently through all seven of her promotional bouts. She fell short via unanimous decision in her most recent outing, so she's on pace for a win if her trends continue on Saturday. Brasil stands 5-foot-6 with a 65.5-inch reach.
UFC Seattle Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Seattle Odds: Alexa Thainara-Bruna Brasil Odds
Alexia Thainara: -700
Bruna Brasil: +500
Over 2.5 rounds: -200
Under 2.5 rounds: +154
Why Alexia Thainara Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Loma Lookboonmee – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 SUB
Alexia Thainara looked like a complete prospect once again with a dominant striking performance over Loma Lookboonmee in her last fight. Facing a dangerous opponent, Thainara led the striking totals 110-67 while landing five of her 11 takedown attempts. She also did great work in landing strikes to the body and systematically breaking her opponent down, a great sign given her concerted efforts to improve the stand-up aspect of her game.
During this fight, her continued striking evolution will certainly come in handy against a seasoned kickboxer like Bruna Brasil. Brasil is much more defensive and technical in her striking than Thainara's previous two opponents, so she'll need to be all the more cautious when eagerly closing the distance.
Still, Thainara will have a stern advantage on the ground thanks to her Brazilian Jiu Jitsu background. She's yet to notch a finish on the feet, but her eight career submissions in just 14 pro bouts speak for themselves as she may be looking to get back to where she's most comfortable. Five of those submissions have come by rear naked choke, but she's also dangerous from her closed guard with the other three wins by armbar.
Why Bruna Brasil Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Ketlen Souza – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
While Bruna Brasil's last fight was ruled a unanimous decision for her opponent Ketlen Souza, Brasil actually led the razor-thin striking margin 65-64 while both fighters landed a single takedown. There's no denying that Souza's punches may have landed harder and created slightly more damage, but Brasil was firmly contending throughout each minute of the three-round fight. This time around, she may have to bypass the judges' scorecards and find a definitive result with a finish on the feet.
While Brasil hasn't been able to find a winning streak throughout her UFC tenure, she's been wildly consistent in responding to each of her promotional losses with a win. She's been streaky in putting together strong performances and with a loss in her last outing, she's due for a much better showing this time around as the underdog with a chip on her shoulder.
Bruna Brasil will also fight with the confidence knowing she beat Thainara back in 2019 when the two faced off on the Brazilian regional MMA circuit. Brasil was able to catch Thainara in a guillotine choke and while they're both completely different fighters after seven years of experience, their first meeting will certainly be at the front of her focus knowing she's beaten this look before.
Final Alexia Thainara-Bruna Brasil Prediction & Pick
This should be an exciting rematch seven years in the making and both fighters should come in looking like completely different, more evolved versions of themselves. Alexia Thainara has been on a blistering run since her Contender Series contract and comes into this bout looking for redemption, suffering the only loss on her record to Brasil back in 2019.
Thainara comes into this fight the biggest betting favorite at UFC Seattle, but it's even more intriguing that Bruna Brasil is perfect (4-0) throughout her entire pro career when fighting following a loss. She also has the added confidence of winning this matchup in this past and fighters that win the first meeting before a rematch have historically performed at a higher rate.
While Alexia Thainara is the clear betting pick and would be the smart pick, there's much more value in taking a shot on Bruna Brasil given the current trends heading into this fight. We could see a close decision by the end of this one, but we'll side with the unlikely upset.
Final Alexia Thainara-Bruna Brasil Prediction & Pick: Bruna Brasil (+500); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-200)
