Coming off upset wins over BYU and Gonzaga, Texas looks to keep the train rolling in its Sweet Sixteen matchup against Purdue. The Longhorns are the only remaining double-digit seed through two eventful rounds of March Madness as they look to knock off the Big Ten Tournament champions.
After upsetting Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament to earn a No. 2 seed, Purdue steamrolled Queens before outlasting seven-seed Miami in the Round of 32. Star point guard Braden Smith became one of the tournament's biggest headlines after becoming the NCAA's all-time assists leader in the Round of 64.
While the Boilermakers have cruised into the Sweet Sixteen, Texas has battled its way to three gritty victories. Sean Miller guided the Longhorns to a First Four win over NC State at the buzzer before taking down AJ Dybantsa and BYU in the Round of 64. Their not-so-Cinderella-like story continued when a clutch Camden Heide three-pointer lifted them over Gonzaga to advance to the regional semifinals.
March Madness odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas vs. Purdue odds
Purdue: -7.5 (-105)
Texas: +7.5 (-115)
Over: 147.5 (-115)
Under: 147.5 (-105)
Texas vs. Purdue key injuries
Amid the chaos of its win over Gonzaga, Texas endured an unfortunate injury to sharpshooter Jordan Pope, who came up gimpy on his right ankle late in the game. Pope finished the game but was seen limping into the locker room afterward.
Pope has been limited in practices since, and Texas is considering him questionable to play. However, with the game being near Pope's hometown of Oakley, California, it would take a severe setback to keep him from taking the court.
Purdue is also dealing with a knee injury to starting guard C.J. Cox, who will also be listed as questionable. Cox took a brief trip to the locker room during the Boilermakers' win over Miami, during which he played just 18 minutes.
The sophomore did not re-enter the game after exiting, though he would return to the bench after his locker room visit. Between the two key injuries, Cox seems more in danger of missing the Sweet Sixteen than Pope.
Texas vs. Purdue betting trends
- Purdue is 17-20 against the spread
- Purdue is 2-0 against the spread in March Madness
- Purdue is 6-9 against the spread as single-digit favorite
- Purdue is 20-17 to the over
- Texas is 19-15 against the spread
- Texas is 3-0 against the spread in March Madness
- Texas is 7-3 against the spread as single-digit underdog
- Texas is 19-15 to the over
Texas vs. Purdue matchup
If Texas is going to pull off its fourth consecutive March Madness upset, it needs to stop Braden Smith as a playmaker. Teams have had success when they force him to become a scorer, but Smith is too lethal as a pick-and-roll ball-handler when he gets the Boilermakers' offense into a rhythm.
While Purdue has only posted average numbers in the paint, it takes over every game with its size. They are best when Smith is running the pick-and-roll with Trey Kaufman-Renn and are even better on the offensive glass, posting the 18th-highest offensive rebound rate in the country.
Between Kaufman-Renn, Oscar Cluff and Daniel Jacobsen off the bench, Purdue's size will be a lot for Texas center Matas Vokietaitis to handle. The seven-foot sophomore has been sensational in the NCAA Tournament, but now goes up against the biggest frontcourt he has faced in weeks.
Texas has ridden Vokietaitis in the postseason, with Tramon Mark and Jordan Pope also having their moments. But with Pope dealing with a semi-significant ankle injury, the Longhorns need Dailyn Swain more than ever if they are going to beat Purdue.
Swain leads the team with 17.4 points per game, but he is averaging just 12.67 points through three March Madness games. The athletic slasher has not found much wiggle room to work with in the paint, forcing him to be more of a passer than he is used to.
Things will not get much easier against Purdue, which allows the 43rd-fewest points in the paint per game.
Whether it is Swain, Vokietaitis or Mark, Texas' true calling card comes at the line. The Longhorns' relentless rim assault has led to 25.9 free throw attempts per game, eighth-most in the country.
However, Purdue is one of the best in the country at limiting fouls. They only commit 14.5 fouls per game, 15th-fewest in the country.
Texas vs. Purdue prediction and pick
After dominating Queens and muscling past Miami, Purdue draws another favorable matchup against Texas. As fun as the Longhorns have been, they will be truly outmatched against the Boilermakers in a way that they were not against NC State, BYU or Gonzaga.
While Texas just beat a big team in Gonzaga, the Bulldogs have been a one-man wrecking crew since losing Braden Huff, relying on Graham Ike to carry the entire load on a nightly basis. Ike is more talented than any big man on Purdue's roster, but the frequency and creativity with which the Boilermakers attack opposing big men is enough to overwhelm Matas Vokietaitis.
Purdue has multiple ways to score, but Texas needs to get to the rim and to the free throw line to win. Perhaps Swain is due for a big game, but the Boilermakers' disciplined defense has kept teams off the charity stripe all season, allowing the third-fewest free throw attempts to opponents.
Texas will have an even more difficult time spacing the floor with its best three-point shooter, Jordan Pope, on track to play with a compromised ankle. Even the smallest amount of pain can compromise a jump shot, which is how Pope gets the majority of his points.
If Vokietaitis gets into any foul trouble, it could be all but over for Texas. The Lithuanian is averaging 3.3 fouls per game in the NCAA Tournament and fouled out of the First Four matchup against NC State.
Final Texas-Purdue prediction & pick: Purdue -7.5 (-105), Under 147.5 (-115)
