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The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Duke Blue Devils in New York. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Iowa Duke prediction and pick.
Iowa basketball has shown the ability to continuously produce NBA-level players under coach Fran McCaffery. Luka Garza has had a limited NBA career because of his lack of defensive heft, but he was an NBA draft pick and might still be able to carve out a role as a bench scorer and backup big man. Last season, Keegan Murray became a breakout star and eventually a top-five lottery pick. Now, Kris Murray is becoming a star. Iowa and Fran are able to develop at least one player and maximize his ceiling in college, as Garza and Keegan Murray did over the past two seasons. Kris Murray is averaging 21 points and nearly 11 rebounds per game. He is giving the Hawkeyes production at both ends of the floor. Iowa has lost only once so far this season and has wins over Seton Hall, Clemson, and Georgia Tech. The one loss was to TCU, a team which was in the top 20 of preseason polls. If Kris Murray continues to play at a star level for the Hawkeyes, this Iowa team should be able to return to the NCAA Tournament and make a run at the Sweet 16, which the Hawkeyes have not made since the 1999 season.
Duke is playing its third Big Ten team in the span of 10 days. The Blue Devils were crushed by Purdue on Nov. 27 in Portland at the Phil Knight Legacy event, but then they beat Ohio State a few days later in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. Now they go up against Iowa.
One of the impressive aspects of Duke's win over Ohio State was that several different Blue Devil players scored 10 points or more. This wasn't a game in which one Duke player went off. Several players all got into the act and helped each other. Ohio State's defense couldn't focus on one or two scorers. The Blue Devils shared the ball and displayed good movement in their halfcourt sets. Yes, Ohio State isn't as good as Purdue, but it remains that Duke's offense — which struggled considerably in Portland over the course of three games — performed a lot better versus Ohio State. Duke then scored 75 against Boston College in a win on Saturday, so maybe this team is figuring things out. A cautionary note: How a team performs against Boston College should not be viewed as a clear sign of where a team stands in its overall progression or evolution during a season.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Iowa-Duke College Basketball odds.
College Basketball Odds: Iowa-Duke Odds
Iowa Hawkeyes: +2.5 (-110)
Duke Blue Devils: -2.5 (-110)
Over: 148.5 (-110)
Under: 148.5 (-110)
Why Iowa Could Cover the Spread
This is a very winnable game for Iowa, and the small point spread is reflective of a belief that when Purdue crushed Duke, other Big Ten teams could be viewed comparably with the Blue Devils. There isn't that much separation between these two teams, and that's a partial product of the Purdue blowout of Duke. Iowa is not a significantly inferior team in this matchup, and it will show in the results.
Why Duke Could Cover the Spread
Purdue is a lot better than Iowa, meaning that what happened against Purdue should not be treated as an indication that Duke is fundamentally in trouble against Iowa. It isn't. Iowa was fortunate to hang on for a 74-71 win over Clemson, an ACC team which is nowhere near as good as Duke is. The Blue Devils will win by several points.
Final Iowa-Duke Prediction & Pick
This is a game in which Duke will take control and will prevent Kris Murray from taking over. Go with the Blue Devils.
Final Iowa-Duke Prediction & Pick: Duke -2.5
