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The Mississippi State Bulldogs (18-9) visit the Missouri Tigers (19-8) on Tuesday night. Action tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Below we continue our College Basketball odds series with a Mississippi State-Missouri prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Mississippi State has won six of their last seven games but remains just 6-8 and tied for tenth place in the SEC. The Bulldogs covered 54% of their games while 52% went over the projected point total. Missouri has lost two straight games but still sits at 7-7 and tied for seventh place in the SEC. The Tigers covered 50% of their games while 56% went over. This will be the second meeting of the season between the conference foes. Mississippi State defended their home court with a 63-52 home victory earlier this month.
Here are the Mississippi State-Missouri college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Mississippi State-Missouri Odds
Mississippi State: +3.5 (-104)
Missouri: -3.5 (-118)
Over: 139.5 (-115)
Under: 139.5 (-105)
How To Watch Mississippi State vs. Missouri
TV: SEC Network
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
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Why Mississippi State Could Cover The Spread
Mississippi State's season has gone about as well as they expected coming into the year. The Bulldogs started the season 11-0 and finished their non-conference schedule with a 12-1 record. They picked up notable wins over Marquette, TCU, and Utah with their only loss coming to MVC heavyweight Drake. They got punched in the face upon entering conference play, however, as started just 1-7 in the SEC. Mississippi State has since rebounded with wins in six of their last seven games. The Bulldogs have the advantage within the advanced ranking tonight as they slide in at No. 41 in KenPom and No. 43 in NET. While they hold a perfect 11-0 record in Quads 3 and 4, their 7-9 record against Quads 1 and 2 leave a lot to be desired. Mississippi State has a ton to play for tonight considering they currently project as a No. 11 seed and one of the “Last Four In” within the NCAA Tournament.
Mississippi State is one of the stingiest defensive teams in the country as they allow just 59.3 PPG – fifth-fewest in Division-1. They are especially strong at getting into passing lanes and forcing turnovers as the Bulldogs rank sixth in the country in steal rate. While they may not score a ton on the offensive end, Mississippi State is one of the best offensive rebounding teams out there. They rank 13th in offensive rebound rate and should feast in that facet of the game against a Missouri team who is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country.
The Bulldogs are led by senior Tolu Smith. The 6'11” forward leads the team with 14.9 PPG and 8.3 RPG. Missouri had no answer for him when they last met as Smith finished the win with 25 points and 12 rebounds. Coming off a 17-point, 12-rebound performance against rival Ole Miss, expect Smith to feast down low yet again tonight.
Why Missouri Could Cover The Spread
Missouri has been one of the surprise teams in the SEC this season after being picked to finish 11th in the preseason poll. The Tigers played a light non-conference schedule that saw them finish with a 12-1 record. While they did get blown out against Kansas, Missouri managed to pick up notable wins over Wichita State, Illinois, and Iowa State. They've been up and down in SEC play and have yet to string together more than three consecutive wins. While they do ride a two-game skid into tonight's game, the Tigers have gone 14-3 at home this season. They can't seem to win the affection of the advanced rankings, however, as they slot in at No. 62 in KenPom and No. 51 in NET. That likely has something to do with their performance against top-tier teams. While Missouri holds a perfect 15-0 record outside of Quad 1, they've gone just 4-8 in Quad 1 matchups. Nevertheless, bracketologists look fondly on the Tigers as they currently project as a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Contrary to their opponents tonight, Missouri is one of the most lethal offensive teams in the country. Their 80.3 PPG ranks 15th in the country, while their 16.5 APG ranks 16th. Their offensive efficiency more than makes up for struggles on the glass and on defense. Missouri ranks 17th in effective field goal percentage and averages 9.4 made threes per game – 18th nationally. Defensively, they may get scored on a lot but the Tigers do a great job forcing turnovers. They hold the second-highest steal rate and force a turnover at the 11th-highest rate in the country.
Final Mississippi State-Missouri Prediction & Pick
After losing on the road to the Bulldogs earlier this month, I expect Missouri to bounce back and get revenge at home.
Final Mississippi State-Missouri Prediction & Pick: Missouri -3.5 (-118)
