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The Providence Friars take on the Butler Bulldogs. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Providence Butler prediction and pick.
The Providence Friars have lost key players from last season's team which won the Big East championship and made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament, but if anyone was thinking that the Friars would fall off the map and instantly become irrelevant again, they were wrong. The Friars might not have a great team, but they still have a good team. They're 2-0 in Big East play. They have lost only three games to this point in the season, two of them over ranked opponents, Miami and TCU. Providence has only one bad loss, to Saint Louis. This is as good as the Friars and their fans reasonably could have expected to this point in the season, probably better. Coach Ed Cooley gets the most from his players, and more than that, he gets his teams to play well in second halves. Cooley makes good halftime adjustments, and his teams close games authoritatively. It was a trait of last season's team, and it can be found on this season's team as well. Providence surged down the stretch to win at Seton Hall, and the Friars built a second-half lead against Marquette before winning in overtime. We will see if Providence can retain this uncanny knack for being the best closing team in the Big East (other than UConn).
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Providence-Butler College Basketball odds.
College Basketball Odds: Providence-Butler Odds
Providence Friars: +2.5 (-102)
Butler Bulldogs: -2.5 (-120)
Over: 140.5 (-110)
Under: 140.5 (-110)
Why Providence Could Cover the Spread
This team is so good late in games and in second halves that it's hard to bet against it, even on the road. Providence has a reputation and identity, so even though some players are no longer on this season's roster, the holdovers know what it's like to compete late in regulation with the score being very close. This is muscle memory for the current Friars, who have in many ways picked up where they left off. This team's culture and DNA are strong, and that is not an easy thing to shake off from a betting perspective. It is true that this is not an imposing team, but when any sports team establishes the reality that it finds a way to win much more often than not, that team becomes a very tough out, and in a late-game situation, that matters. Given that the point spread in this game is low, the margins favor Providence.
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It also has to be said that Butler has suffered very lopsided losses to Tennessee and North Carolina State. The Bulldogs have lost five games and have not been able to establish the level of play they want. They have been drilled in recent games by UConn and Creighton. Providence is simply a better team right now.
Why Butler Could Cover the Spread
The Providence Friars are due for some regression to the mean. Last season, Providence was 11-3 in games decided by five points or fewer, and 3-0 in overtime games. Providence seemed to win nearly every close game it played. Now Providence has once again found a way to win close games within the Big East Conference. Each of its first two Big East games of the new season were decided by five points or fewer. Guess what? The Friars won both. This is simply not going to continue forever. Surely the odds and the laws of averages will start cutting against Providence at some point.
The other point to make about this game is that while Butler did lose by more than 20 points to UConn earlier in December, that game was close in the early stages of the second half before UConn made a big run. Hinkle Fieldhouse is a tough place for visitors to play, and Butler will be up for this game, knowing it can't afford too many more home-court losses in conference play.
Final Providence-Butler Prediction & Pick
Stay away from this game, which feels like a total coin flip. You shouldn't be on any game or prop which feels like a coin flip.
Final Providence-Butler Prediction & Pick: Providence +2.5
