Subscribe
Follow Us
The TCU Horned Frogs take on the SMU Mustangs. Check out our college basketball odds series for our TCU SMU prediction and pick.
The SMU Mustangs are struggling. They are 3-6 through nine games, and none of their wins have been against especially strong teams: Texas A&M-Commerce, Evansville, and Lamar. SMU lost at home to previously winless Jackson State. The Mustangs got off to a strong start against a good Arizona State team this past week but fell apart in the second half and lost. SMU was an NCAA Tournament team five years ago, but the Ponies look nowhere close to being an NCAA Tournament-level team this season. However, this is a rivalry game. In college football, TCU and SMU play for the Iron Skillet. There is no love lost between the basketball teams, either, and the fires of a rivalry could be the fuel SMU needs to grab a huge, high-end win and change the course of its season. This game is not an on-campus game. It is being played in Fort Worth, which is TCU's home city, but it is not being played in the Horned Frogs' home building. It is being played in Dickies Arena, which hosts a lot of neutral-site college basketball games in the early weeks of the season. The arena also hosted first- and second-round sessions for the 2022 NCAA Tournament last March. That's where North Carolina beat No. 1 seed Baylor and Kansas advanced to the Sweet 16 en route to the national championship.
TCU lost to Northwestern State early this season. The shocking upset as a massive favorite was a big jolt to coach Jamie Dixon and his team. It's true that Mike Miles, one of TCU's core players, was not healthy in the early weeks of the season, but even without Miles, TCU should have been able to handle Northwestern State. TCU reached the Round of 32 at last season's NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs cultivated resilience, resourcefulness and depth. Losing one starter should matter against elite Big 12 or national opposition; not Northwestern State. Everyone wondered how TCU would respond to that loss.
The Frogs have provided a good answer.
TCU beat Iowa by 13 points — the same Iowa team which hammered Iowa State this past week and will likely make the NCAA Tournament — and the Frogs have continued to improve in December. They have not lost a single game since the NWSU loss. They are 7-1 on the season and have to feel good about their evolution heading into this battle with SMU.
Here are the TCU-SMU NCAA Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: TCU-SMU Odds
TCU Horned Frogs: -11.5 (-118)
SMU Mustangs: +11.5 (-104)
Over: 134.5 (-115)
Article Continues Below
Under: 134.5 (-105)
Why TCU Could Cover the Spread
The Horned Frogs are a much better team. SMU is capable of playing 20 to 25 good minutes per game, but the Mustangs plainly have not proved that they can play 40 complete minutes against good teams. That has not happened yet in nine games this season. SMU can beat bottom-feeders, but not quality teams such as TCU.
Why SMU Could Cover the Spread
SMU did outplay Arizona State in the first half of the Mustangs' recent game earlier this week. Arizona State is a good team, 2-0 in the Pac-12 and with only two losses overall, one month into the season. If SMU could play 20 good minutes against Arizona State, it shows this team has the potential to be good. If SMU can play two strong halves instead of one, that's a formula for success.
Final TCU-SMU Prediction & Pick
TCU is a much better team playing much better basketball. Don't overcomplicate this one.
Final TCU-SMU Prediction & Pick: TCU -11.5
