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The Toledo Rockets take on the Buffalo Bulls. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Toledo Buffalo prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Toledo Buffalo.
Toledo and Buffalo are tied for fourth place in the Mid-American Conference, one game behind Ball State and Akron and two games behind the conference leader, Kent State, entering play on Friday night. Ball State and Kent State play on Friday, so Toledo and Buffalo know that if they win, they not only will go ahead of the other, but they will gain a game on one of the top three teams in the conference. It's a real opportunity and a high-pressure situation for these teams. Keep in mind that placement in the standings affects seeding for the MAC Tournament this March. Buffalo and Toledo have a lot to play for on a big night in the Mid-American Conference, a one-bid league where getting the right draw in the conference tournament could make the difference between reaching March Madness and, on the other hand, having to settle for a spot in the NIT.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Toledo-Buffalo College Basketball odds:
College Basketball Odds: Toledo-Buffalo Odds
Toledo Rockets: -5.5 (-104)
Buffalo Bulls: +5.5 (-118)
Over: 168.5 (-110)
Under: 168.5 (-110)
How To Watch Toledo vs. Buffalo
TV: CBS Sports Network
Stream: CBSSports.com
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET, 5:30 p.m. PT
*Watch Toledo-Buffalo LIVE with fuboTV (Click for free trial)*
Why Toledo Could Cover the Spread
The Rockets have struggled with their defense for a good portion of the season, but in their last four games, they have been noticeably better. They have allowed an average of 78.6 points per game for the full season, but in this recent four-game stretch, they haven't allowed more than 75 points in any of those games. Their average points allowed number: 72.8, nearly six points fewer than the overall season average. It's not a gigantic transformation, but for a team which scores a lot — Toledo does score an average of 84.8 points per game — giving up six fewer points per game is certainly significant, and it is going to mean more wins for this team over the course of many weeks, not just one or two games.
Buffalo gives up an average of 77.1 points per game, so if Toledo can score at a high rate against the Bulls and keep at its recent (four-game) points allowed average of just under 73 points, the Rockets can cover. If they give up 73 and they hit their season average of 84.8 points scored, they will cover with some margin for error involved.
Why Buffalo Could Cover the Spread
The Bulls average 79.9 points scored per game, so they are in a position to test Toledo's newly improved defense. Buffalo's offense can apply pressure on the Rockets and probe their various weak points. It's not as though a successful basketball offense has to dominate all areas on the floor and exploit all five positions on an opposing defense; the offense just has to find two weak spots, one as the primary point of attack and then a second spot as the counter when the defense tries to solve that primary weakness with adjustments, switches, helpers, and other maneuvers. Buffalo has a great chance to find two weaknesses in the Toledo defense and put to rest the notion that Toledo is a permanently changed team at the defensive end of the floor.
Final Toledo-Buffalo Prediction & Pick
We very rarely recommend over-unders in a sport such as college basketball, which is extremely volatile, but gosh, the total is really high in this game. An 84-83 game will stay under the total. It's really hard to pass up that opportunity to bet on a total which is so extreme. It's like the other side of betting the over on a game with a total under 110. Here, go under.
Final Toledo-Buffalo Prediction & Pick: Under 168.5
