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The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Indiana Hoosiers. Check out our college football odds series for our Illinois Indiana prediction and pick.
The Illinois Fighting Illini opened their season in August for the second consecutive season. They did so against Nebraska in 2021. Their August “Week Zero” opener in 2022 came against the Wyoming Cowboys. Illinois roared in a 38-6 win which was even easier than the final score might indicate. This game was non-competitive. Illinois limited Wyoming to five completed passes in 20 attempts. The Cowboys gained just 30 passing yards the whole game, even though they trailed by a large margin for most of the afternoon. Illinois more than doubled the Pokes in total yardage, 477-212. The Illini forced two turnovers. They controlled the ball for more than 36 minutes. They had more than 200 yards rushing and passing. They held Wyoming to 1 of 12 third-down conversions. It was a lopsided game in which the stat sheet looked fantastic for Illinois. The obvious question is if Wyoming is going to be so awful this year that beating the Cowboys by 32 will become normal for every team Wyoming plays.
Indiana gets its season started in this game against its Big Ten competitor. What's new for Indiana this year? A lot. The Hoosiers lose star linebacker Micah McFadden to the NFL and the New York Giants, but they said goodbye to quarterback Michael Penix, who sought a fresh start in Seattle at the University of Washington under his former offensive coordinator at Indiana, Kalen DeBoer. Replacing Penix is Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak, who wants to create a new chapter in his own playing career. Indiana had a tremendous 2020 season and very nearly made the Big Ten Championship Game, but in 2021, the Hoosiers tumbled down the ladder to the bottom of the Big Ten standings. The Hoosiers will try to get back a measure of what they lost last year.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Illinois-Indiana College Football odds.
College Football Odds: Illinois-Indiana Odds
Illinois Fighting Illini: +1.5 (-110)
Indiana Hoosiers: -1.5 (-110)
Over: 45.5 (-110)
Under: 45.5 (-110)
Why Illinois Could Cover the Spread
The argument for an Illinois win, in a game which is very close to a pick'em, is that the win over Wyoming revealed real strengths which will continue to manifest themselves this season. The Fighting Illini were so imposing on defense against Wyoming that they will be able to carry some of that performance — maybe even most of it — into this game against Indiana. It's an obvious point, but definitely worth mentioning: Having a game under your belt, a full 60 minutes of live action at the start of a season, provides a lot of information and insight into a team. Illinois has this and Indiana does not. That's a clear advantage for Illinois.
Why Indiana Could Cover the Spread
Connor Bazelak was not tremendous at Missouri, nor was he a bust. He was a decent quarterback who had his moments, but who never maintained an elite standard of performance.
Know what? That's okay at Indiana. If Bazelak can slightly improve upon his Missouri track record — meaning that he's not amazing but will provide generally competent quarterback play and tighten up his game to a modest extent — Indiana will get a real upgrade from Michael Penix, who threw two pick-sixes in the season opener against Iowa last year and struggled to put the pieces together for the Hoosiers' offense. After Illinois faced a terrible Wyoming passing game in which the Cowboys completed only 5 of 20 throws, Bazelak should significantly challenge the Illinois secondary.
Final Illinois-Indiana Prediction & Pick
This is frankly a stay-away game, because it's really hard to judge if the Illinois blowout of Wyoming was a true indicator of Illinois' quality, or if it was simply a case of Wyoming being horrible. If you insist on a pick, however, lean to Indiana because of Bazelak's presence in the Hoosier huddle.
Final Illinois-Indiana Prediction & Pick: Indiana -1.5
