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The Kansas Jayhawks take on the Baylor Bears. Check out our college football odds series for our Kansas Baylor prediction and pick.
The Baylor Bears are still one of the most enigmatic and puzzling teams in college football. They won the Big 12 last season and were picked as a top-15 team and a Big 12 championship contender in the offseason. Teams are picked to do well in preseason publications because football experts do a lot of studying and can see that a team has the requisite pieces to make another run. Predictions aren't arrived at by accident. Yet, Baylor is a mediocre team halfway through the season. What happened? It's not as though Baylor's offense is the only problem for coach Dave Aranda in Waco. It is true that the offense was going to deal with some limitations, and that the Bears' ceiling was going to be a little lower as a result. On that front, it's not particularly surprising that the Bears have struggled to a greater extent in 2022. However, on defense, Baylor has really lost the plot.
Dave Aranda is one of the best defensive coaches in the country. He was able to beat Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma last year, then Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 championship. He then smothered Lane Kiffin's offense in a Sugar Bowl win over Ole Miss. If the offense was going to struggle this year, the defense was still supposed to have the answers, but in recent weeks, that has not been the case.
Oklahoma State scored abundantly in a road win in Waco earlier this season. Last week, West Virginia scored over 40 points on a night when Baylor's offense moved the ball and did its job. Baylor is losing games on both sides of the ball. Aranda has a lot he needs to figure out.
The Kansas Jayhawks are running into a brick wall named reality. They were able to beat two vulnerable Big 12 teams — West Virginia and Iowa State — earlier in the season. They accumulated five wins by going 3-0 in nonconference play. If they win just one more game, they will earn a bowl bid, which would be a spectacular accomplishment for a program which has had so many awful seasons over the past decade. It's still a really good season for coach Lance Leipold, who is a hot commodity in the college football coaching carousel. However: The limits of this team are finally becoming apparent. The joyride portion of the season is over.
Kansas has been outclassed by TCU and Oklahoma the past two weeks. The Frogs are unbeaten, and the Sooners got Dillon Gabriel back at quarterback. Highly-skilled offenses have swamped the Kansas defense with a tsunami of big plays. Kansas was able to outscore West Virginia, and its defense was able to hold Iowa State in check, but the quality of opposition in the Big 12 is now getting a lot better for Kansas. The Jayhawks are no longer riding high. They have to figure out a path to that elusive sixth win before the season ends. Baylor might actually give KU one of its better win opportunities left on the schedule.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Kansas-Baylor College Football odds.
College Football Odds: Kansas-Baylor Odds
Kansas Jayhawks: +9.5 (-105)
Baylor Bears: -9.5 (-115)
Over: 58.5 (-105)
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Under: 58.5 (-115)
Why Kansas Could Cover the Spread
The point spread is large. Baylor does not have a quarterback nearly as good as Dillon Gabriel of Oklahoma. Kansas was a nine-point underdog to the Sooners and very nearly covered, losing by 10. Baylor's offense is not going to overwhelm Kansas' flawed defense the way OU did.
Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread
Baylor is a desperate team in search of a good performance. The Bears played on Thursday, Oct. 13, meaning they have two more days of rest for this game than Kansas did. The Jayhawks last played on Oct. 15. Rest and urgency can help Baylor win decisively.
Final Kansas-Baylor Prediction & Pick
If Kansas can score 42 on Baylor, as it did against Oklahoma, KU will not only cover, but win the game. KU probably won't score 42, but it should be able to keep this game close throughout.
Final Kansas-Baylor Prediction & Pick: Kansas +9.5
