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The LSU Tigers take on the Auburn Tigers. Check out our college football odds series for our LSU Auburn prediction and pick.
Last year, Auburn won at LSU for the first time since 1999. Now, LSU is a solid favorite at Auburn. What happened to bring about this abrupt change of circumstance in this fierce SEC West rivalry? It's very simple. Auburn is cratering as a program. Ignore the fact that Auburn won last week. The Plainsmen (as they are sometimes called, which is helpful since it differentiates them from the LSU Tigers and the Missouri Tigers) did beat Missouri, but they frankly shouldn't have. They were outplayed and outcoached. They should have lost. Missouri just needed to make a 25-yard field goal at the end of regulation, but it was somehow missed. Then Missouri intercepted an Auburn pass in overtime, but a penalty wiped away that Auburn turnover and the Plainsmen took a 17-14 lead. Missouri got the ball, however, just needing a touchdown to win. A runner was headed toward the goal line, but he lost the ball at the 1 and Auburn recovered in the end zone. It was a miraculous win, simply in terms of how improbable it was. This was every bit as improbable as the Prayer in Jordan Hare and the Kick Six, the two crazy wins in the 2013 season which enabled Auburn to play for the national championship against Florida State. The fact that Auburn won, though, doesn't change how broken the program is under head coach Bryan Harsin, who is almost certain to be fired before the end of 2022.
LSU still doesn't look like a really good team under head coach Brian Kelly, but the Tigers look a lot better than Auburn. LSU beat Mississippi State after falling behind by 13 points. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels is not an especially good passer, but he is a really good running quarterback who can make big plays with his legs. LSU's defense is containing opposing offenses. You're not seeing opposing quarterbacks light up the LSU secondary. The defense has generally been doing its job to this point in the 2022 season. Developing Daniels as a passer is the huge and central task for Kelly and his coaches. If LSU can create more upside for Daniels, its offensive capabilities will grow considerably, and this team's ceiling will be much higher as the season goes along.
Here are the LSU-Auburn NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: LSU-Auburn Odds
LSU Tigers: -8.5 (-105)
Auburn Tigers: +8.5 (-115)
Over: 46.5 (-110)
Under: 46.5 (-110)
Why LSU Could Cover the Spread
The Auburn Tigers are quarterbacked by a backup, Robby Ashford, who is filling in for T.J. Finley. Ashford did not look very good a week ago versus a mediocre Missouri defense. If he couldn't play particularly well or generate good results against Missouri, it's highly unlikely he will be able to figure things out against an LSU defense which has been solid and competent in the first month of the 2022 season.
Why Auburn Could Cover the Spread
LSU-Auburn games have been crazy and unpredictable over the years. Auburn won in Baton Rouge last year for the first time in 22 years. LSU has pulled off some crazy comebacks in the recent years of this series. Even in years when it seems one team is a lot better than the other, the game still manages to be close. It's a rivalry game, and we all know that college football rivalries can produce some hard-to-believe results.
Final LSU-Auburn Prediction & Pick
Even though this is a rivalry game, Auburn is a total mess, and figures to do very little on offense. The under is a really good play in this game, and LSU covering also feels surprisingly secure, given the volatile history of this matchup.
Final LSU-Auburn Prediction & Pick: LSU -8.5, under 46.5
