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The Wisconsin Badgers will look to rebound on Saturday when they face an undefeated opponent in the Michigan Wolverines. Wisconsin is coming off a disappointing 41-13 home loss against Notre Dame last week. They now have a 1-2 record, ranked 3rd in the Big Ten West. As for Michigan, they remain perfect, defeating Rutgers by 20-13 in their last home contest. With that said, it's a good time to check out our college football series, which includes the Michigan-Wisconsin prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the Michigan-Wisconsin odds:
College Football Odds: Michigan-Wisconsin Odds
Michigan: +1 (100)
Wisconsin: -1 (-120)
Over: 43.5 (-103)
Under: 43.5 (-117)
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Why Michigan Could Cover the Spread
Saturday's matchup will be Michigan's first road game of the season, having played all four games at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. Last season, the Wolverines had a winning record on the road so let's see if it will translate this year. The first three games of the season for Michigan were blowout wins. The Wolverines averaged 47 points while holding their opponents to 11.3 points. Last week, Michigan had a bit of trouble against Rutgers, not scoring in the second half; however, their defense kept them in the game. Michigan's running game is one of the best in college football. Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins have a combined 797 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. They rush the ball 73.71% of the time, which is 4th most in the nation, and average 6.3 yards per rush which are 3rd in the nation.
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Michigan's defense ranks 4th in opponent points per game (11.8). They are facing a Wisconsin team that scored only 13 points on Notre Dame last week. The Badgers were 1 of 4 inside the 20 in their opener against Penn State and settled for two field goals when the Notre Dame game was still in question. Graham Mertz threw four picks against the Irish as well. Therefore, this stout Michigan defense should overpower the Badgers offense that struggles against good defenses.
Why Wisconsin Could Cover the Spread
The Badgers have faced two tough opponents so far this year in Penn State and Notre Dame. Yet their defense is what will win them this game on Saturday. They are the top in the country in rush defense. They rank 1st in opponent rush yards per game (23.0), opponent rushes per yard (1.0), and 2nd in opponent rushes per game (22.7). This does not bode well for a Michigan team that prefers to rush the ball 74% of the time. Quarterback Graham Mertz threw four interceptions last game and will need to be better at taking care of the ball against a solid Michigan defense. With that said, Michigan only has four takeaways this season and does not generate enough pressure in the backfield.
Wisconsin outplayed Penn State and had the game won, but the Penn State defense stepped up in crucial moments to pull off the victory. The key to beating Michigan will be stopping the run game and converting in the red zone. If Wisconsin can do those two things, they should be able to pull off the victory at home. Luckily, the Wolverines are 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 road games and 0-5 against the spread in their last five overall.
Final Michigan-Wisconsin Prediction & Pick
Last week, Wisconsin was just 1 for 14 on third downs and gave away five turnovers to a mediocre defense. They have had trouble sustaining drives and producing in the red zone.
On the other hand, Michigan is undefeated and has looked like the stronger team so far this season. I expect the game to be close, but Wisconsin's lack of offensive production will be the difference-maker.
Final Pick: Michigan +1
