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The Texas State Bobcats take on the Baylor Bears. Check out our college football odds series for our Texas State Baylor prediction and pick.
The Baylor Bears have a problem. They can't throw. Their game against BYU this past weekend was hard to watch, especially for any Baylor fan. The Bears simply couldn't throw the ball down the field. They used a very conservative game plan and tried to win the game with their defense. It almost worked, but when the Bears had to score a touchdown in overtime, their passing game was not up to the task. Quarterback Blake Shapen just isn't giving this offense much of any upside.
One has to remember that when Baylor won the Big 12 Championship Game against Oklahoma State last year, the Bears' low-scoring victory was made possible by multiple interceptions thrown by OSU quarterback Spencer Sanders. Those mistakes set up short fields Baylor was able to turn into points. Without those mistakes, Baylor almost certainly would have lost. Then, in the Sugar Bowl against Ole Miss, Baylor's defense once again dominated, saving the Bears on a night when the offense did not consistently move the ball. Baylor is an imbalanced team in which one side of the ball does the vast majority of the work. The offense has to help out the defense to a much greater extent. Otherwise, visions of a Big 12 championship (and a possible date with Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game this upcoming December) will not materialize for head coach Dave Aranda. Baylor did not land an elite quarterback in the transfer portal, and it is paying the price for not upgrading its roster at that obviously important position.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Texas State-Baylor College Football odds.
College Football Odds: Texas State-Baylor Odds
Texas State Bobcats: +29.5 (-106)
Baylor Bears: -29.5 (-114)
Over: 52.5 (-110)
Under: 52.5 (-110)
Why Texas State Could Cover the Spread
You can see how limited the Baylor offense is. The Bears have to score at least 30 points to be able to cover the spread, and that's in the event they're able to pitch a shutout. If Texas State scores just one touchdown, Baylor will need to score 37 or more points. If the Bobcats score 10, Baylor has to score 40. Even if we allow for the possibility that Baylor's offense will be better against Texas State than it was against BYU, which is a reasonable enough point to make, it remains that in this game, Baylor is likely to run the ball a lot and shorten the game. The BYU game was physically and mentally draining, so Baylor is not going to play this game full-throttle. That will be enough for Texas State to cover the spread.
Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread
After the poor offensive performance against BYU, guys in the Baylor offensive huddle are going to come out fired up and intent on being a lot better than they were one week ago in Provo. The physical difference between these teams is enormous. Baylor should be able to do whatever it wants, whenever it wants, against an undermanned and overpowered Texas State team.
Final Texas State-Baylor Prediction & Pick
Baylor's offense isn't good, but this is a men-versus-boys matchup in which Baylor should be able to throw its weight around. The Bears can dominate without having to completely revise their offensive approach. That will be a problem against good Big 12 teams, but not here. Take Baylor.
Final Texas State-Baylor Prediction & Pick: Baylor -29.5
