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The Western Michigan Broncos will face the Nevada Wolf Pack in some bowl game action. It's time to continue our college football odds series and make a Western Michigan-Nevada prediction and pick.
These two teams have had remarkably similar seasons. Both went 4-1 in their first five games, and both lost a game that should have resulted in an easy victory. The offensive statistics that both possess are also strangely alike, so this should be a hotly contested matchup. One major storyline heading into this contest is the absence of Nevada quarterback Carson Strong, who declared for the NFL Draft recently. It'll be interesting to see how the Wolf Pack operates without their star signal-caller against an evenly matched Western Michigan team, so let's get into the pick.
Here are the Western Michigan-Nevada odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Western Michigan-Nevada Odds
Western Michigan Broncos: -6.5 (-112)
Nevada Wolf Pack: +6.5 (-108)
Over: 55.5 (-110)
Under: 55.5 (-110)
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Why Western Michigan Could Cover the Spread
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Because of Strong's decision to prepare for the NFL, the Broncos will face quarterback Nate Cox in this game. Cox is a senior, but he remains extremely inexperienced. The righty threw a total of 20 passes this year and another two passes in 2019. This will essentially be Cox's first significant game action, and Western Michigan's solid pass defense won't make things easy on him. The Broncos only allow 206 passing yards per game to go along with a 56% completion percentage. Cox will struggle throughout this contest, especially since he'll be missing one of his best targets. Tight end Cole Turner also decided to skip this bowl game to prepare for the draft. Turner racked up 677 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns this season, so his absence will be felt by this Nevada offense.
The Broncos were one of the most run-heavy teams in college football this season, and that will certainly continue here. Nevada struggled against the run this season, allowing opposing ball carriers to rack up 4.7 yards per touch. The Wolf Pack also gave up nearly 180 rushing yards per game, another abysmal number. Western Michigan averaged nearly 200 rushing yards per game throughout the season, so it's easy to see them having a huge day on the ground in this matchup.
Why Nevada Could Cover the Spread
While Strong was obviously the best player on the Nevada offense, this team has the pieces to put together a solid offensive showing around Cox. Wide receivers Romeo Doubs and Tory Holton were both fantastic throughout the season, with both players looking virtually uncoverable at some points in the year. The Broncos have allowed some huge days to opposing receivers, so either of these guys could come through with a monster game. The Wolf Pack also sported one of the best offensive lines in the nation, as Strong was only pressured on 6% of his dropbacks throughout the year. Cox will have a lot of great talent to work with in this game.
Nevada managed to earn a great record against the spread and straight up this year. The Wolf Pack went 8-3-1 ATS on the year, which is the sixth-best record in the nation in that category. Nevada also posted a 4-0-1 record against the spread when they entered the game as an underdog. A touchdown may be giving Western Michigan too much credit here.
Final Western Michigan-Nevada Prediction & Pick
It's just too hard to trust Nevada here. Nate Cox is a complete wild card, so it's best to ride with the Broncos in this one, especially since they're only favored by a score.
Final Western Michigan-Nevada Pick: Western Michigan Broncos: -6.5 (-112)
