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This weekend, we will learn a lot about some of the top-ranked teams in the country, as Georgia and Michigan take on their first true tests of the season. Out on the West Coast, Washington is preparing to host Utah in a showdown that will likely determine whether either team has a chance to make the College Football Playoff. Washington can add another quality win to its resume, while Utah can prove that it's win against USC wasn’t a fluke. Keep reading for my best picks for this weekend!
All college football odds courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Michigan at Penn State
Michigan: -4.5 (-115)
Penn State: +4.5 (-105)
Michigan’s problem, in addition to their cheating scandal, is that they have not played anybody of note this season. That is factoring against them with the College Football Playoff committee, but they will have a chance to alleviate those concerns this weekend.
Penn State is a talented team this year, and it represents the first real challenge that Michigan is facing. The Wolverines have been mocked for their weak schedule so far this season, but that argument against Jim Harbaugh’s crew will fade rapidly if they dispatch the Nittany Lions with ease.
The Wolverines know this is an opportunity for them, and that they will have to seize the moment and prove themselves to the committee and the national college football world.
There is another reason Michigan must win this game and leave no uncertainty in doing so: This game can serve as a hedge against a possible loss to Ohio State later in the season. It is certainly possible for a one-loss team to make the playoff, and even possible for a two-loss team, but a two-loss team with no quality wins, a scandal and a joke of a schedule that has drawn universal derision, criticism and mockery? Absolutely no way that team gets in. A team that loses one game against a likely CFP contender and dismantles another top-10 team? They'd have an argument to get in, regardless of what the rest of their schedule looked like outside of those two games.
College Football Pick: Michigan -4.5 (-105)
College Football Odds: Utah at Washington
Utah: +8.5 (-106)
Washington: -8.5 (-114)
Both of these teams have something in common: They have both defeated USC. They did so in different ways, Utah playing a defensive game and coming through offensively in key moments, and Washington coming out on top in an offensive shootout by making one or two defensive plays at essential moments.
If Washington can emerge victorious against another top-15 team in Utah, they'll put themselves right in the middle of the conversation for the CFP.
If Utah wins, however, not only will they likely knock the Huskies out of playoff contention, but depending on how the rest of the season plays out, they might even find themselves as dark horse candidates for that fourth playoff slot.
With this being a division rivalry game and a potential spot in the playoffs on the line, we can expect this to be a great matchup.
Utah boasts one of the best defenses in all of college football, and they recently held USC’s vaunted offense to 32 points. Washington, meanwhile, featured arguably the most prolific offense in the nation, having put up 40 or more points six times this season, including three games of 50 or more points.
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I believe that Washington will win this game. That being said, I think the game will follow a similar trajectory to the Utah-USC game, and that Utah’s elite defense will slow down the Huskies and keep the game within striking distance. I would consider buying some points to reduce the likelihood of Washington scoring late and turning a 3-point lead into a 10-point lead, but I like my chances with Utah and the points.
College Football Pick: Utah +8.5 (-106)
College Football Odds: Ole Miss at Georgia
Ole Miss: +10.5 (-110)
Georgia: -10.5 (-110)
Similar to Michigan, the strongest critique of this Georgia football team is that they haven't played anybody noteworthy yet this season.
In fact, the main reason that the College Football Playoff Committee has the Ohio State Buckeyes ranked ahead of Georgia is because the Buckeyes have two quality wins (victories over Penn State and Notre Dame) and Georgia is perceived to have zero quality wins to this point.
That could all change this weekend. The Buckeyes win against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish looks less and less impressive with each game that Notre Dame loses, and if they stumble again they could even find themselves on the outside looking in when it comes to the next round of Playoff rankings.
Georgia, meanwhile, will face their toughest test of the season to date in a matchup against an athletic, confident and physical Ole Miss team that is currently ranked 10th in the nation.
If Georgia is able to come out of this weekend with a victory against a top-10 opponent, that will do wonders for their reputation and future standing as the number-one team in the country.
There is no doubt that Georgia understands what is at stake here, and Kirby Smart has reminded his team of the importance of leaving no doubt by dismantling Ole Miss and beating them by a significant margin.
College Football Pick: Georgia -10.5 (-110)
