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In the final week of the 2024 regular season, the Washington Commanders (11-5) look to carry momentum into the playoffs against the Dallas Cowboys (7-9). It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Commanders-Cowboys prediction and pick.
The Commanders are coming off a playoff-clinching win at home against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 17, which extended their current win streak to four. Their last loss, however, was against the Cowboys in Week 12.
Dallas has since been eliminated from the playoffs and shut down star receiver CeeDee Lamb. Without Lamb in Week 17, the Cowboys were blown out by the Philadelphia Eagles 41-7, dropping them to 7-9 on the year.
Commanders-Cowboys Last Game – Matchup History
The Commanders and Cowboys have competed in the same division for decades and have a long history of games against each other. Dallas won the most recent matchup 34-26, upsetting Washington on the road for Cooper Rush's first win of the year. Interestingly, since Washington adopted the Commanders' name in 2022, the Cowboys have won four of the past five meetings.
Overall Series: Cowboys lead 79-48-2
Here are the Commanders-Cowboys NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Commanders-Cowboys Odds
Washington Commanders: -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -220
Dallas Cowboys: +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +184
Over: 44.5 (-104)
Under: 44.5 (-118)
How to Watch Commanders vs. Cowboys
Time: 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT
TV: FOX
*Watch NFL games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Commanders Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Commanders may have clinched the playoffs in Week 17, but they still have more to play for than the Cowboys. Sharing a record with the Green Bay Packers gives the game seeding implications, which they could potentially fight for. Dallas essentially waived the white flag in Week 17 by shutting down Lamb, leaving their offense a mere shell of what they used to be. On top of Lamb, they will take the field for their final game of the year without Zack Martin, Trevon Diggs, DeMarvion Overshown, Caelen Carson, and DeMarcus Lawrence. Safety Donovan Wilson also left Week 17 with a knee injury and is questionable to play.
Without Lamb, the Cowboys mustered just seven points against the Eagles. Rush had nowhere to go with the ball, throwing for just 143 yards, one touchdown, and a pair of interceptions. Lawrence and Overshown's absences were also felt, as backup quarterbacks Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee had all day to throw, combining for three scores through the air.
All the talk in Washington has been about Jayden Daniels but Dan Quinn's team wants to run the ball. Led by Brian Robinson's career year, they run at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Dallas has been poor at stopping the run all season, ranking third-worst by allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 138.6 rush yards per game.
Washington enters this game brimming with confidence after eclipsing 30 points in three of their past four games. On the year, the Commanders' 63 percent cover rate ranks among the highest in the league. Conversely, the Cowboys are just 6-10 ATS, covering only 38 percent of their games.
Why The Cowboys Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Commanders have been prone to falling for trap games all season long. They stubbed their toes against the Cowboys in Week 12 and came out of their bye week flat against a Derek Carr-less Saints team in Week 15, needing a failed last-second two-point conversion attempt to squeak out a win. Before the Week 17 massacre against the Eagles, Dallas was 4-1 in their five previous games, including three outright wins as underdogs.
The status of Marshon Lattimore, who missed Washington's last game, will be key. Without Lattimore, Washington had to deploy veteran journeyman Michael Davis against Atlanta, who was picked on by rookie Michael Penix Jr. all game. If Lattimore can't go, standout nickelback Mike Sainristil will also have to shift outside, opening up the slot for the emerging KaVontae Turpin.
Lattimore or not, the way to beat this Commanders' team is on the ground. Washington's rush defense ranks in the bottom five of the league, allowing over 300 total rushing yards in the past two weeks. Rico Dowdle has topped 100 yards in four of his past five outings. Another big game could keep this one closer than many might expect.
Regardless of who plays, the Commanders are almost guaranteed to provide a healthy dose of blitz-heavy man coverage. Rush, who is familiar with Dan Quinn's schemes, has a passer rating of 98 against man-to-man defenses, as opposed to 68.2 against the zone. Along with Rush, every key member of Dallas' offense was on the team in 2023 when Quinn coached their defense.
Final Commanders-Cowboys Prediction & Pick
While the Week 12 result was only six weeks ago, it feels like a lifetime has passed. A lot has changed since then, namely, the Cowboys' elimination from the playoffs. Dallas will play its 11th straight game in Week 18 with Cancun in sight, making for an evil combination of tired legs and full-blown senioritis.
Daniels and the offense enter this game with all of the momentum behind them after an exhilarating Week 17 overtime win. With one more chance to get right before the playoffs, the superstar rookie, who has struggled at times against elite secondaries, gets a soft matchup against a hobbled Cowboys secondary.
Quinn already confirmed that he will not rest starters in Week 18 and vows to push for the No. 6 seed. That takes away a lot of the cushion they were given in a generous 4.5-point spread. Without Lamb, the Cowboys do not have enough offensively to keep up with the Commanders, who will look to avenge their Week 12 loss.
Final Commanders-Cowboys Prediction & Pick: Commanders -4.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-118)
