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The Arizona Diamondbacks and Houston Astros will face off to open their three-game series on Friday night. The Diamondbacks have won three of their last four games but only five of their past ten. The Diamondbacks remain in the thick of the playoff race with a 2.5-game lead in the wild-card race. They are now 0.5 games behind the San Diego Padres and five games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the National League West. The Houston Astros are reeling after losing three straight games on the road to the Cincinnati Reds. They've won just five of their past ten games, but have a five-game lead in the American League West as the rest of the division crumbles down the stretch. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Diamondbacks-Astros prediction and pick.
Diamondbacks-Astros Projected Starters
Brandon Pfaadt vs. Framber Valdez
Brandon Pfaadt is 9-7 with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.
Pfaadt's last start was at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He pitched 5 2/3 innings with 10 strikeouts. He allowed 8 hits, 2 walks, and three earned runs. Pfaadt has won four of his last five decisions despite allowing three or more earned runs in four straight.
Pfaadt is 3-4 on the road with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.
Framber Valdez is 13-6 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.
Valdez's last start was at home against the Kansas City Royals. He pitched 7 innings with 7 strikeouts. He allowed no hits, 3 walks, and no earned runs. Valdez allowed two or fewer runs in four of the last five starts.
Valdez is 7-2 at home with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Astros Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-170)
Moneyline: +134
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+140)
Moneyline: -158
Over: 7.5 (-118)
Under: 7.5 (-104)
How to Watch Diamondbacks vs. Astros
Time: 8:10 PM ET/5:10 PM PT
TV: MLB Network, ARID, SCHN
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Diamondbacks have overcome some poor outings by Brandon Pfaadt thanks to their streaking offense. They have been mashing the ball over the last ten games, averaging .280 with a .355 on-base percentage, and 7.1 runs/nine. Arizona may need that kind of output again in this game with Pfaadt on the mound.
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Astros had a poor series against the Reds, but their offense looked good in their last series at Minute Maid Park. They had five or more runs in three of four games in that series and could have the same success against Pfaadt.
The Diamondbacks are stealing games thanks to their offense and a good bullpen. However, Framber Valdez has been in control over his last five starts, shutting down some good offenses along the way. The Arizona bullpen has also been struggling to keep their heads above water, owning a 7.07 ERA over their last three games.
If Pfaadt can't keep the Houston offense off the board and Valdez puts forth another quality outing, this game could get ugly.
Final Diamondbacks-Astros Prediction & Pick
Neither of these teams is doing much to offer confidence to back them. They've also had streaky offenses, so there is no good edge toward an over or under. However, we'll look at the Astros who have to find inspiration after losing three in a row to Cincinnati. The Astros will want to right the ship in their first game back home and Framber Valdez may be the steadying presence they need.
Final Diamondbacks-Astros Prediction & Pick: Astros ML (-158)
