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The MLB season continues as the Arizona Diamondbacks look to pick up the win on the road in Philadelphia when they take on the Phillies in the second game of their series on Saturday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Diamondbacks-Phillies prediction and pick.
Diamondbacks-Phillies Projected Starters
Brandon Pfaadt vs. Aaron Nola
Brandon Pfaadt – (5-1) with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP
Last Start: Pfaadt allowed three runs (two earned) on nine hits and a walk over six-plus innings Sunday, striking out six and earning a win against Atlanta.
2025 Road Splits: Pfaadt has been solid on the road, where he is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 11.2 innings.
Aaron Nola – (0-5) with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP
Last Start: Nola did not factor in the decision during Sunday's extra-inning win over the Cubs. He allowed a run on three hits and a walk over seven innings while striking out six.
2025 Home Splits: Nola has not had a great time pitching at home, where he is still winless at 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.85 WHIP across 11.1 innings.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Phillies Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+152)
Moneyline: +102
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-184)
Moneyline: -120
Over: 9 (-110)
Under: 9 (-110)
How To Watch Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Article Continues Below
Time: 6:05 PM ET/3:05 PM PT
TV: MLB Extra Innings, MLB.TV
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
Brandon Pfaadt and the Arizona Diamondbacks are well-positioned to topple Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday, thanks to a combination of recent form, favorable matchups, and bullpen depth. Pfaadt enters the game as one of the hottest pitchers in the National League, boasting a 5-1 record and a stellar 2.78 ERA across 35.2 innings. He’s been especially dominant over his last four starts, posting a 1.52 ERA and striking out 20 batters in 23.2 innings, all while handling a heavy dose of left-handed hitters with poise and creativity. The Diamondbacks are also riding high after a statement series win against the Mets, and with MVP finalist Ketel Marte expected back in the lineup, their offensive firepower gets a crucial boost.
On the other side, Aaron Nola has struggled to find his rhythm in 2025, carrying a 0-5 record and a 5.40 ERA into the matchup. Historically, the Diamondbacks have fared well against Nola, as he owns a 7.31 ERA in six career starts versus Arizona. While Nola’s most recent outing was a step in the right direction, the Phillies’ shaky bullpen depth beyond Matt Strahm and Jose Alvarado leaves them vulnerable in the late innings. With Pfaadt’s consistency, Arizona’s surging confidence, and a more reliable relief corps, the Diamondbacks have the edge to secure a victory over Philadelphia on Saturday.
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies are primed to outduel Brandon Pfaadt and the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday, leveraging a potent offense and the comforts of Citizens Bank Park. Despite Nola’s rocky start to the season, he showed signs of a turnaround in his most recent outing, holding the surging Cubs to just one run over seven strong innings. The Phillies’ lineup, averaging 5.53 runs per game-good for fourth in MLB-has the firepower to challenge any pitcher, especially at home, where they’ve consistently produced multi-run innings and timely hits. Trea Turner, in particular, has a strong track record against Diamondbacks pitching, making Philadelphia’s top of the order especially dangerous.
While Pfaadt has been impressive early in 2025, left-handed hitters have found success against him, and the Phillies’ lineup is stacked with lefty bats capable of exploiting this weakness. Philadelphia’s pitching staff, anchored by elite late-inning arms like Matt Strahm and Jose Alvarado, gives them an edge in close games, especially if Nola can hand over a lead. With the Phillies’ offensive consistency and Nola’s potential for a bounce-back performance, expect Philadelphia to seize the moment and secure a key victory over Arizona on Saturday.
Final Diamondbacks-Phillies Prediction & Pick
Saturday’s matchup between Aaron Nola and Brandon Pfaadt promises a tightly contested duel, but the Phillies hold a slight edge at home. Nola is coming off a strong seven-inning, one-run outing against the Cubs and has the track record to steady the Phillies’ rotation despite a tough start to 2025. Philadelphia’s offense, among the league’s best in run production, will test Pfaadt, who has been excellent lately but still prone to occasional big innings. The advanced metrics suggest both pitchers are evenly matched, but Nola’s consistency and the Phillies’ deep bullpen give them a late-game advantage. Expect a close game, but look for Philadelphia to capitalize on their home-field momentum and edge out Arizona in a low-scoring affair.
Final Diamondbacks-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies ML (-120), Under 9 (-110)
