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We're set for another betting prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 105 as we head to the Women's Flyweight (125) Division for this upcoming Prelim. Romania's “Warrior Princess” Diana Belbita will take on Brazil's “The Witch” Dione Barbosa in a can't-miss scrap. Check the UFC odds series for our Belbita-Barbosa prediction and pick.
Diana Belbita (15-9) has gone 2-5 under the UFC banner since 2019. She's lost two of her last three with back-to-back losses against Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Molly McCann coming into this fight. With just one win since 2022, she'll hope to get back on track against a new prospect in this one. Belbita stands 5-foot-7 with a 68-inch reach.
Dione Barbosa (7-3) comes in with a 1-1 record under the UFC since 2024. Following an armbar submission win on Dana White's Contender Series, she debuted with a win over Ernesta Kareckaite. Dropping her most recent bout against Miranda Maverick, she'll look for her second UFC win in this one. Barbosa stands 5-foot-6 with a 65.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 105 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 105 Odds: Diana Belbita-Dione Barbosa Odds
Diana Belbita: +650
Dione Barbosa: -1000
Over 2.5 rounds: +100
Under 2.5 rounds: -130
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Why Diana Belbita Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Molly McCann – SUB (armbar, R1)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Diana Belbita caught a tough loss her last time out against Molly McCann as she was caught in an armbar submission. The lock injured her arm and she's been on the shelf for more than a year in an otherwise active career, so she'll be eager to get back into the octagon and prove her worth. With a 2-6 record, she'll be fighting with her back against the wall in a division with new talent coming into it. Still, she's far more experienced than her opponent and her underdog mentality should serve her well in this matchup.
While the last few fights haven't gone her way, Diana Belbita is one of the toughest fighters in the division and she's never been knocked out in her career. She has very active boxing with high output that doesn't waver over the course of three rounds. While she's prone to absorbing damaging, she shrugs it off and continues to march forward while pressuring opponents. Forward pressure will be the biggest key to her success as she looks to put Barbosa on her back foot.
Why Dione Barbosa Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Miranda Maverick – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 3 SUB
Dione Barbosa ran into a much more skilled and seasoned UFC opponent her last time out against Miranda Maverick as she learned a valuable lesson in controlling a fight for three rounds through the ground game. Barbosa is a skilled grappler herself and all three of her career finishes have come by way of submission. She owns a black belt in both jiu jitsu and judo, so expect her to initiate the clinch against the thinner-framed Belbita as she tries to use her strength to throw her opponent to the ground.
With six of Belbita's losses coming by way of submission including her most recent outing, the path to victory seems very clear for Barbosa to get this fight to the mat. She's physically stronger than her opponent and can find success by holding her on the ground and looking for submission attempts. While Belbita tries to scramble and get back to her feet, Barbosa can look to take the back and work her chokes from there. Either way, this fight will take place in Barbosa's world if she can land a takedown and end up on top.
Final Diana Belbita-Dione Barbosa Prediction & Pick
This fight should be a fun one as we'll see two differing styles with the volume striking of Diana Belbita combating the dangerous submission grappling from Dione Barbosa. Both women come in following a loss, so they'll both be motivated to bounce back with a win in this one. Belbita is on a bit of a hot seat with her current run, so expect to see the best version of her come Saturday night.
Diana Belbita can stand to see success if she's able to land her lead jab and deter the takedown attempts from Barbosa. She has a very solid 64% takedown defense rate and could certainly see the tide turn in her favor if she's able to display her volume striking on the feet.
However, I think Dione Barbosa has a huge strength advantage in this fight and even if she's unable to land a clean takedown, she's very likely to cause trouble with her judo skills if she can initiate the clinch. From there, I expect her to find an eventually submission in a “Performance of the Night” effort.
Final Diana Belbita-Dione Barbosa Prediction & Pick: Dione Barbosa (-1000); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-130)
