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The Philadelphia Phillies host the Los Angeles Dodgers for a marquee NL matchup on Saturday evening. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Dodgers-Phillies prediction and pick.
The Phillies and Dodgers play Game 1 of the series on Friday night on Apple TV+.
Dodgers-Phillies Projected Starters
Roki Sasaki vs. Aaron Nola
Roki Sasaki (0-0) with a 5.79 ERA and 2.79 WHIP in 4.2 innings.
Last Start: 1.2 innings, three hits, two earned runs, four walks, and two K's in the 7-3 win over the Detroit Tigers. He was pulled early as his pitch count reached 61, and he had trouble finding the zone.
Aaron Nola (0-1) with a 8.44 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, eight K's in 5.1 innings.
Last Start: 5.1 innings, five earned runs, six hits, two homers allowed, and eight K's in the 5-1 loss to the Washington Nationals.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Dodgers-Phillies Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+158)
Moneyline: -102
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-192)
Moneyline: -116
Over: 8.5 (+100)
Under: 8.5 (-122)
How to Watch Dodgers vs. Phillies
Time: 4:05 ET/1:05 PT
TV: FS1
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Why The Dodgers Will Cover The Spread/Win
Roki Sasaki is the newest young prized pitcher from Japan. He is extremely talented with a high ceiling. His first two starts as a Dodger have not gone the way he had hoped, but there is plenty of time for him to settle down. Roki pitched in Japan to begin the season and went three innings, allowing one run against the Chicago Cubs. However, he walked five hitters. He needs to focus on finding the zone. His command is slightly off, and he will now face one of the toughest lineups in all of baseball. If he is able to go at least four innings, then that is a huge step.
The offense has been amazing to begin the season. They have shown up in clutch moments and, as a result, are 8-0 to start the year. Tommy Edman has the most plate appearances with 31 and leads with four home runs. Shohei Ohtani has one fewer at-bat and one fewer home run. Mookie Betts missed a few games to start in Japan with an illness but has responded by hitting three homers already and has struck out just once. This lineup is scary.
LA will be without Freddie Freeman, as he was placed on the IL with an ankle injury. Even without him, the lineup has performed very well.
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
Aaron Nola toes the slab for the Fightin Phils. He struggled against the Nationals as two homers got the best of him. The good news is that he did not walk anyone. His command was there, but he just misfired on two pitches, and it cost them. Nola K'd up eight which is a good sign. He will face a deep lineup against LA. As long as he doesn't allow the long ball, he should be okay. He will likely go at least five innings to give his team a chance to win. The Phillies' only loss of the season came in his first start. The 31-year-old is still one of the top pitchers in the game.
Kyle Schwarber has been on fire to begin the season. He has hit four home runs in six games and is batting .308 with a 1.165 OPS. Edmundo Sosa has also surprised to begin the campaign. He leads the team with nine hits and has four doubles. His OPS is at 1.492 which also leads the team. He is batting .600 so far in 15 at-bats. If Sosa keeps this up, he will quickly establish himself as a premier hitter in this lineup. There is no question this is the best start to his eight-year career.
Bryce Harper will still do Bryce Harper things. Against Roki, I can see him having a huge day at the plate. The Phillies can cover because they have a powerful offense that can see him taken out early once again.
Final Dodgers-Phillies Prediction & Pick
Los Angeles is 6-2 against the spread and the Phillies are 5-1 against the spread. The line for this Game 2 may change depending on the result of the series opener. For now, the Dodgers are favored.
The Dodgers are the better team but with Roki pitching, I think this runline is wrong. The Phillies should be favored, but since they are not, taking their runline is the play. They should not lose by more than a run in a early-afternoon game against a struggling young pitcher. If you are confident, take the moneyline.
Final Dodgers-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies +1.5 (-192)
