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The stage is set and UFC 312 will be capped-off by a rematch for the Middleweight Championship as we bring you our betting prediction and pick. Champion Dricus Du Plessis of South Africa will face former champion and No. 1 contender Sean Strickland of the United States as the two settle their bad blood. Check the UFC odds series for our Du Plessis-Strickland prediction and pick.
Dricus Du Plessis (22-2) has gone a perfect 8-0 en route to becoming UFC Champion and will make his second title defense. He defeated Strickland via split decision to gain the belt and then famously defended against Israel Adesanya. Now, he'll see Strickland once more to settle what was a murky result in their first meeting. Du Plessis stands 6-foot-1 with a 76-inch reach.
Sean Strickland (29-6) has gone 16-6 with the UFC since 2014. After losing his first ever title defense to Du Plessis, Strickland bounced back with an impressive split decision victory over Paulo Costa most recently. He's intent on settling this bad blood as he feels he was robbed on the scorecards during his first fight with the current champion. Strickland stands 6-foot-1 with a 76-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 312 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 312 Odds: Dricus Du Plessis-Sean Strickland Odds
Dricus Du Plessis: -198
Sean Strickland: +164
Over 4.5 rounds: -200
Under 4.5 rounds: +154
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Why Dricus Du Plessis Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Irael Adesanya – SUB (rear naked choke, R4)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 11 SUB
Dricus Du Plessis comes into this fight solidifying his position as champion after wearing down Israel Adesanya and eventually finishing the fight with a submission win. It was easily the toughest fight of his career thus far with his awkward and imposing style matchup up well against Adesanya that day. It's worth noting that Du Plessis had a much more difficult time dealing with the equally awkward style of Sean Strickland, so it'll be interesting to see what adjustments are made ahead of this second meeting.
The positive is that Du Plessis has taken a big leap forward since becoming champion in terms of his confidence and planning ahead of fights. He pins his power up against anyone in the division and he knows he's able to withstand more damage than his opponent. While he wasn't able to get much of his wrestling going in the first fight, I expect Du Plessis to be much more aggressive with grappling and clinching during this one as he knows he can win the fight on the ground.
Why Sean Strickland Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Paulo Costa – S DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Sean Strickland looked a step slower against Paulo Costa in his last fight, but it's understandable he changed his game plan to account for the power shots coming back his way and respecting Costa's striking. Strickland doesn't have nearly as much respect for the striking of Du Plessis and we saw him march his opponent down during their first meeting. While Strickland is more than willing to eat a punch, he may be much more defensive this time around to help aid in optics if this fights sees another decision.
Still, Strickland's “Philly shell” style of boxing is certainly an advantage given Du Plessis' tendency to extend his punches and lean forward into them. If Strickland is able to remain patient and not over-extend himself, he should be able to land important counter shots throughout this fight. With a 77% takedown defense throughout his career, we saw Strickland dictate where this fight took place in the first meeting, so expect much of the same during this second time around.
Final Dricus Du Plessis-Sean Strickland Prediction & Pick
This will be a very interesting matchup given how close the first fight was. Many argued that Strickland managed to be the more aggressive fighter during the first meeting, but it was Du Plessis who landed more damage and was more convincing with his offense.
I expect much of a similar fight this time around and neither fighter will be pressed to engage the grappling exchanges. If we see another kickboxing fight, it certainly favors the activity and output coming from Strickland over five rounds.
Still, Dricus Du Plessis is fighting in his absolute prime at the moment and he already has the formula for beating Strickland in this type of fight. Nevertheless, I believe Strickland is much more intent this time around and won't stop coming forward until the final bell. I think we see another close decision, but this time it'll be the challenger that comes out on top by a slim margin.
Final Dricus Du Plessis-Sean Strickland Prediction & Pick: Sean Strickland (+164)