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The Fresno State Bulldogs take on the New Mexico Lobos. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Fresno State New Mexico prediction and pick. Find how to watch Fresno State New Mexico.
Here we go again. New Mexico was once in a very favorable position to make the NCAA Tournament, and now the Lobos enter March in a very precarious spot. It is much like last season, when the Lobos were the last Division I men's basketball team to lose a game. They were perfect in November and December of 2022 and still had a really strong record at the end of January of 2023. Yet, they imploded in February and missed the NCAA Tournament altogether. This season, New Mexico had another very strong record in the middle of February and seemed likely to make the NCAA Tournament. The Lobos could still get in, but they have reduced their margin for error due to an inexplicable home-court loss to a bad Air Force team, followed by another loss to Boise State. New Mexico cannot afford a loss to a mediocre Fresno State team at home. If the Lobos do lose this game against FSU, they are highly unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament. Even if New Mexico wins this game, the Lobos would need at least one other win before Selection Sunday to feel reasonably good about their chances. New Mexico is on the ledge again. This time, the Lobos will try to avoid falling off. The pressure is on in Albuquerque for a team which refuses to make life easy for itself and its fans.
Here are the Fresno State-New Mexico College Basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Fresno State-New Mexico Odds
Fresno State Bulldogs: +17.5 (-102)
New Mexico Lobos: -17.5 (-120)
Over: 151.5 (-115)
Under: 151.5 (-105)
How To Watch Fresno State vs New Mexico
Time: 10:30 pm ET / 7:30 pm PT
TV: Fox Sports 1
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Stream: fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Fresno State Could Cover the Spread
The New Mexico Lobos are an unreliable team. They lost outright at home to Air Force a few weeks ago as a 19.5-point favorite. If New Mexico can collapse like that against Air Force, surely Fresno State can at least keep this game closer than 18 points. That's all the Bulldogs need to do in order to cover the spread. New Mexico just doesn't improve over the course of a season. The Lobos have been good in the earlier and middle parts of the past two seasons under coach Richard Pitino, but in February and early March, they get worse, not better. They tire of the chase. Their discipline and focus recede instead of becoming sharper. It's a real issue for Pitino as a coach. This happened to him in his previous stop at the University of Minnesota. This is not a rare turn of events for him. It's the way things usually unfold late in a college basketball season. New Mexico certainly does not deserve the benefit of the doubt here.
Why New Mexico Could Cover the Spread
The Lobos are in a must-win situation, placed against a not-very-good Fresno State team at home in Albuquerque. New Mexico might not be a reliable team, but this is a game in which the setup points to a big Lobo win. New Mexico can really take out its frustrations on a bad opponent and run wild on one night. New Mexico will struggle to beat the good teams in the Mountain West, but after the shocking loss to Air Force, expect UNM to come out of the tunnel with great energy and focus. This could be a 30-point win for the Lobos.
Final Fresno State-New Mexico Prediction & Pick
New Mexico will win the game outright, but do you trust this team to play a complete 40-minute game? Maybe lean to UNM with a small play early and then see if you can get a chance to “middle” the point spread.
Final Fresno State-New Mexico Prediction & Pick: New Mexico -17.5
