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One of the most exciting boxers in the world returns to the ring on Mar. 1 when WBA lightweight champion Gervonta ‘Tank' Davis (30-0) defends his title against Lamont Roach (25-1-1). It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Gervonta Davis-Lamont Roach prediction and pick.
Davis, 30, has held the WBA lightweight title since 2019. Despite not defending his belt as frequently as other champions, his knockout power has created a highlight reel that has turned him into one of boxing's biggest stars. The undefeated ‘Tank' is coming off a seventh-round knockout of Frank Martin in June 2024.
Roach, 29, enters the fight as the WBA super featherweight champion, a belt that Davis owned before moving up in weight. While his belt will not be on the line in this fight, he is making his lightweight debut after compiling a six-fight win streak to conquer the 130-pound division. Roach most recently successfully defended his title against Feargal McCrory in June 2024, seven months after winning the belt.
Here are the Gervonta Davis-Lamont Roach odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Gervonta Davis-Lamont Roach Odds
Gervonta Davis: -2000
Lamont Roach: +1040
Over 7.5 Rounds: +104
Under 7.5 Rounds: -132
How to Watch Gervonta Davis vs. Lamont Roach
Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Main event ring walk time (estimated): 10:30 p.m. ET / 7:30 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: Amazon Prime Video PPV
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why Gervonta Davis Will Win
Thirty men have tried, and all 30 have failed to beat Gervonta Davis. His activity might not be as high as many desire from a star champion, but he delivers every time out. Davis' power simply separates him from any other fighter in the division. Few can even make a compelling case to compete with him with the most power, pound-for-pound, in the sport. He does not throw a ton of punches, but he never hits an opponent without them feeling it.
While Davis' power is repeated to death, his defense is also second to none. He has a plus-14.7 punch differential despite throwing just 32.2 punches a round, the second-fewest among eligible fighters on Compubox. His high-guard approach is not flashy but undeniably effective.
Davis has Roach in front of him on Mar. 1 but really has his eyes set on Shakur Stevenson for a potentially lucrative matchup down the line. Stylistically, Roach presents a potentially problematic speed and athleticism test, but it is nothing the six-time defending lightweight champion has not seen before.
Why Lamont Roach Will Win
Since moving up to lightweight, Davis has mostly faced bigger, more powerful opponents. With the exception of Ryan Garcia, who admittedly faced ‘Tank' without rehydrating, none presented much of a speed advantage. The athletic Roach will have that in his arsenal, posing a challenge Davis has not seen in a while.
In his last title defense, Davis got the highlight-reel knockout, but it was slightly more challenging for him along the way. He is known for taking the opening rounds off to make his reads but was consistently getting touched by Frank Martin. Roach is much quicker and tends to fight with significantly more volume than Martin, who landed 54 punches on Davis through the first five rounds.
Despite his relatively unknown status, Roach will not shy away from the moment. He is also a champion, but more importantly, has faced Davis twice before as an amateur. In similar situations, a rematch typically favors the underdog. Since his last loss to Jamel Herring, Roach continues to improve with each fight and seems to be as confident as he ever has in his career.
Final Gervonta Davis-Lamont Roach Prediction & Pick
It has been a while, but these fighters are familiar with one another. They fought twice before as an amateur, with Davis winning both bouts by points. A lot has changed since then, but logging ring time with Davis has evidently given Roach confidence that he has what it takes to win the unofficial trilogy. Roach has the speed and experience to make the matchup interesting but should not get in the way of another statement title defense.
Nothing can be guaranteed, but Roach will almost certainly win the opening rounds. Davis is notoriously stagnant in those frames, while Roach loves to get ahead of his opponents. While it may seemingly make the fight interesting, many have gained false confidence from that aspect of Davis' game before, only for ‘Tank' to break them down late. Since moving up to lightweight, Davis has finished seven of his last eight fights, with all but two ending in round seven or later.
Davis has fight-ending power from bell to bell, but he is selective with his shots and never wavers from his patient approach. Roach has historically displayed above-average head movement and footwork, but his Philly shell defense often leaves him open to counters. Roach is also prone to allowing opponents to pressure him and fighting to their pace in the middle rounds. In Davis' last fight, Martin seemingly found his range early, but the knockout quickly came once the champion turned on the pressure.
Final Gervonta Davis-Lamont Roach Prediction & Pick: Gervonta Davis in Rounds 7-12 (-125)
