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UFC Shanghai: Johnny Walker versus Mingyang Zhang kicks off with the prelims with a fight between Diyar Nurgozhay and Uran Satybaldiev in the light heavyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Nurgozhay-Satybaldiev prediction and pick.
Diyar Nurgozhay (10-1) arrives after a tough submission loss to Brendson Ribeiro at UFC Fight Night in March 2025. Prior to that, he showcased his power with a second-round KO on Dana White’s Contender Series and a first-round TKO in UAE Warriors. He now looks to rebound against Uran Satybaldiev this weekend.
Uran Satybaldiev (9-1) enters this weekend’s fight coming off a close unanimous decision loss to Martin Buday in April 2025. Before that, he submitted Leon Soares with a third-round kimura in March, building momentum with dominant wins in LFA. Satybaldiev aims to rebound strongly against Nurgozhay.
Here are the UFC Shanghai Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Shanghai odds: Diyar Nurgozhay-Uran Satybaldiev odds
Diyar Nurgozhay: +136
Uran Satybaldiev: -162
Over 2.5 rounds: -115
Under 2.5 rounds: -115
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Why Diyar Nurgozhay will win
- Last Fight: (W) Brendson Ribeiro – SUB R2
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 8 (6 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Diyar Nurgozhay enters UFC Shanghai motivated to bounce back after a loss, bringing a lethal mix of precision striking and grappling dominance to the Octagon. Despite coming off a defeat, Nurgozhay’s 10-1 record showcases his high finishing rate and 100% takedown accuracy, making him a dangerous threat early in the fight. His ability to efficiently take opponents down and maintain control will be crucial against Uran Satybaldiev, who relies heavily on distance and striking defense.
Nurgozhay’s striking accuracy, hitting 49% of his significant strikes, allows him to capitalize on openings, pressuring Satybaldiev effectively. Whereas Satybaldiev leans on reach and movement, Nurgozhay’s aggressive style can disrupt the rhythm and pace, forcing the fight into more scrappy, close quarters exchanges where Nurgozhay excels.
Additionally, Nurgozhay’s submission attempts highlight his threat on the ground, where he attempts 0.7 submissions per 15 minutes. His versatility in both striking and grappling will likely put Satybaldiev on the back foot. Mentally, Nurgozhay will be fueled by the determination to avenge his recent loss.
Expect Nurgozhay to impose relentless pressure, secure takedowns, and control the fight, edging out a hard-fought decision or potentially finishing Satybaldiev at UFC Shanghai.
Why Uran Satybaldiev will win
- Last Fight: (L) Martin Buday – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 (6 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Uran Satybaldiev enters UFC Shanghai motivated to rebound from his recent decision loss and showcase why his ground game is among the division's best. With a 9-1 record and a dangerous submission arsenal, Satybaldiev holds the tools to exploit any opponent’s weaknesses on the mat. His win over Leon Soares by kimura is clear evidence of his ability to end fights if the action goes to the ground.
Against Nurgozhay, Satybaldiev’s game plan should focus on relentless takedowns and top control, disrupting his foe’s striking rhythm. While Nurgozhay has displayed impressive takedown defense, Satybaldiev’s chain wrestling and pressure can eventually wear him down, opening up opportunities for submissions or dominant ground-and-pound.
Mentally, Satybaldiev is tough and adaptable, traits reflected in his comeback performances throughout his career. His penchant for pushing the pace and testing his opponent’s conditioning can be the deciding factor in later rounds, especially if the fight turns into a grueling battle.
In a high-stakes matchup like this, Satybaldiev’s experience in grinding out tough decisions and capitalizing on small mistakes may be the key. If he sticks to his grappling blueprint and maintains pressure, Satybaldiev can hand Nurgozhay his second career defeat.
Final Diyar Nurgozhay-Uran Satybaldiev prediction & pick
The matchup between Nurgozhay and Satybaldiev promises an intriguing contest between two well-rounded fighters with contrasting styles. Nurgozhay brings a dynamic and aggressive approach, known for his powerful striking and relentless forward pressure. His ability to mix striking with takedown attempts makes him dangerous in all areas of the cage, giving him multiple paths to victory.
Satybaldiev, on the other hand, is a technically sound fighter with a strong grappling base. His strategy typically revolves around controlling opponents on the ground and grinding out opportunities for submissions or ground-and-pound. His patience and tactical prowess make him effective at neutralizing aggressive opponents, forcing them to fight in uncomfortable positions.
The key factor in this fight will be Nurgozhay’s ability to keep the fight standing and maintain pace while avoiding Satybaldiev’s takedown attempts. If Nurgozhay can defend the grappling exchanges effectively, his striking power and volume will likely wear down Satybaldiev.
In contrast, if Satybaldiev can impose his wrestling and control the fight on the mat, he should capitalize and secure a ground finish. Overall, this fight will be closely contested, but Nurgozhay’s aggression and striking versatility give him a slight edge to get the win and back on track at UFC Shanghai.
Final Diyar Nurgozhay-Uran Satybaldiev Prediction & Pick: Diyar Nurgozhay (+136), Over 2.5 Rounds (-115)
