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We're back with yet another exciting Prelim bout at UFC Shanghai as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this tilt in the Lightweight (155) Division. Rongzhu of China will take on Ultimate Fighter alumni Austin Hubbard in what should be an exciting battle early in this card. Check the UFC odds for our Rongzhu-Hubbard prediction and pick.
Rongzhu (26-6) has gone 2-3 inside the UFC since 2023. After winning the Road to UFC tournament, Rongzhu exacted his return to the roster with his latest unanimous victory over Kody Steele. In front of a home country crowd, he'll look to build a winning streak as the betting favorite. Rongzhu stands 5-foot-9 with a 71-inch reach.
Austin Hubbard (16-9) has gone 4-7 inside the UFC since 2019. Since advancing to the finale of the Ultimate Fighter 31, he's taken his contract and gone 1-2 and hoping to break a two-fight streak of consecutive split decision losses. Hubbard stands 5-foot-10 with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Shanghai Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Shanghai Odds: Rongzhu-Austin Hubbard Odds
Rongzhu: -258
Austin Hubbard: +210
Over 2.5 rounds: -260
Under 2.5 rounds: +195
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Why Rongzhu Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Kody Steele – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 14 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Ronzhu looked extremely sharp during his last bout against Kody Steele, earning a “Fight of the Night” bonus for their intense exchanges on the feet. Rongzhu managed to land more often with 126 total significant strikes, cementing him as an exciting talent that's willing to get busy on the feet. He's also dangerous in locking submissions on the ground, so he'll definitely be looking for the finish in front of this home crowd.
Rongzhu outpaces Hubbard with 5.9 significants strikes per minute to Hubbard's 3.87, while also matching his wrestling pace with better takedown accuracy (62%) and defense (84%). With Hubbard's takedown rate sitting at just 31%, Ronzhu certainly has the advantage in dictating where this fight will take place, neutralizing some of the potential groundwork from Hubbard.
All in all, Rongzhu is the rightful favorite here and fighting in front of the home crowd will give him an added boost of confidence. If he manages to put the pressure on Hubbard early and back him against the fence, it should open opportunities to finish the fight and get the crowd going in his favor.
Why Austin Hubbard Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) MarQuel Mederos – S DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Austin Hubbard has now gotten two consecutive split decision verdicts in heartbreaking fashion, both of which could have gone his way. Hubbard actually landed more strikes than his previous opponent, but it was ultimately the overall damage that favored both Mederos and Hernandez in their wins over him. Nevertheless, we've seen the underdog mentality from Hubbard in the past and he'll be looking to channel that same attitude on Saturday.
While Hubbard isn't the most technical or accurate striker out there, he's always in front of his opponent and throwing combinations with significant power. His use of the jab will be crucial during this fight as it'll be his best method to keep Rongzhu at a safe distance and giving himself room to operate with his kicking game.
The low leg kicks from Hubbard could in fact be a strong asset for him in this fight and negating some of Rongzhu's movement. He'll also need to capitalize on any moments that Rongzhu is retreating as he won't get many chances to really press forward with intention during this fight.
Final Rongzhu-Austin Hubbard Prediction & Pick
This should be another fun matchup on the Prelims and both men have shown a great willingness to bang in the center of the octagon. Rongzhu is the more active side with both his striking and wrestling, so it'll be interesting to see whether Hubbard meets him head-on or if he takes a more defensive approach.
Hubbard certainly has an ability to hurt Rongzhu during this fight, but he'll need to be very clean in stringing punches together. While he's usually good for at least one shot, it'll be those consecutive punches that hurt Rongzhu and allow him to pressure forward.
However, Rongzhu's defense has been stout up to this point and he should be able to handle anything Hubbard throws at him. Fighting on Chinese soil could give him a massive boost of motivation and he has more tools to finish the fight in a number of ways. Still, I expect this to be a back-and-forth bout where both man land significant offense on each other.
Final Rongzhu-Austin Hubbard Prediction & Pick: Rongzhu (-258); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-260)
