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the time has finally come for the UFC Shanghai Co-Main Event, coming between ranked title hopefuls in the Featherweight (145) Division. No. 5-ranked Brian Ortega of BlackHouse MMA will take on No. 7-ranked Aljamain Sterling of Serra Jiu-Jitsu for a can't-miss battle between fan favorites. Check the UFC odds for our Ortega-Sterling prediction and pick.
Brian Ortega (16-4) has gone 8-4-0-1 during his wild UFC ride since 2014. With five combined performance bonuses and ‘Fight of the Night' efforts, Ortega will be hoping to bounce back from his last lost against Diego Lopes. A win could push him back into title talks as he continues to hold his contender spot. Ortega stands 5-foot-8 with a 69-inch reach.
Aljamain Sterling (24-5) has gone 16-5 inside the UFC en route to formerly defending the Bantamweight title on three separate occasions. Since moving up to featherweight, he's beaten Calvin Kattar and fell to Movsar Evloev in his last bout. He'll be looking to jump the rankings once more as the betting favorite. Sterling stands 5-foot-7 with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Shanghai Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Shanghai Odds: Brian Ortega-Aljamain Sterling Odds
Brian Ortega: +250
Aljamain Sterling: -310
Over 4.5 rounds: -215
Under 4.5 rounds: +165
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Why Brian Ortega Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Diego Lopes – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Brian Ortega simply didn't have his night against Diego Lopes during his last appearance, potentially underestimating the improved striking of his opponent. With Lopes status as a jiu jitsu practitioner, the fight took place mostly on the feet out of respect from both sides. It will be interesting to see if Ortega shows the same kind of caution when dealing with Sterling on the ground given his similar jiu jitsu background.
Nevertheless, Ortega has always leaned on his striking rather than his jiu jitsu to keep him in a fight. He's one of the toughest fighters on the roster and will continue to press forward until he's effectively stopped. On the feet, we could see Ortega start to pull away if he's able to fluidly chain his striking together.
While Ortega is likely to encounter the wrestling of Sterling, his 56% takedown defense should serve him well given the added threat of his guillotine choke over the top. Ortega should constantly be searching for small openings the more Sterling decides to tie up with him in the grappling and clinch exchanges.
Why Aljamain Sterling Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Movsar Evloev – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Despite the loss, Aljamain Sterling looked solid in his showing against Movsar Evloev, but it was more a testament to how dominant Evloev has been himself. Sterling appears to be in much better shape in this featherweight division and not having to cut the extra 10 pounds has hime looking stronger over his last couple of fights. No one's more confident in their grappling than Aljamain Sterling, so it'll be interesting to see if he'll look to take Ortega's back in this one.
Aljamain Sterling has also shown great improvements on the feet and is actually throwing more strikes (4.41) per minute than Ortega (4.08). Sterling is more accurate (52%) than Ortega (37%) on those attempts, painting a much different picture than what fans may have initially thought of this matchup.
All in all, Aljamain Sterling deserves to be the favorite here and his ability to do everything well will give him the edge. He's also comfortable with controlling Ortega for three rounds and chasing his own submission attempts, so don't at all sleep on the ground game of Sterling throughout this fight.
Final Brian Ortega-Aljamain Sterling Prediction & Pick
This fight will be a joy to watch as both fighters are extremely high-level and high-IQ in all areas of the fight. We can give the slight striking advantage to Brian Ortega thanks to his slick boxing, but he's undoubtedly lost a step over the last few fights. Aljamain Sterling poses a tough challenge in this new division and he could give Ortega a run for him money for the better ground game in this fight.
I think Brian Ortega will see his moments of success in the striking during this fight, but Aljamain Sterling is far too determined to land takedowns and make the most of them. I suspect Sterling to take Ortega's back on a number of occasions and show his dominant self from that particular position.
All in all, I think the betting odds are accurate for this matchup and we'll have to side with the favorite. I think Brian Ortega is far too tough to be finished during this fight, but Aljamain Sterling will turn in the more convincing performance in a decision win.
Final Brian Ortega-Aljamain Sterling Prediction & Pick: Aljamain Sterling (-310); OVER 4.5 Rounds (-215)
