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The time has finally come for the UFC Kansas City Main Event as we'll see two ranked beasts in the Welterweight (170) Division face off for a desirable spot in the standings. No. 7-ranked Ian Machado Garry of Ireland will take on Brazil's No. 13 Carlos Prates in a can't miss fight atop this card. Check the UFC odds series for our Garry-Prates prediction and pick.
Ian Machado Garry (15-1) has gone 8-1 inside the UFC since 2021. He rode an eight-fight unbeaten streak since entering the promotion and has been one of the most exciting fighters on the roster. He fell short during his bout agains top contender Shavkat Rakhmonov, but he's determined to prove himself once again as a title hopeful. Garry stands 6-foot-3 with a 74.5-inch reach.
Carlos Prates (21-6) went a perfect 4-0 inside the UFC since debuting last year in 2024. He's won all four of his fights via devastating knockout and has earned “Performance of the Night” honors on each occasion. He's had about as perfect of a start that anyone can have, but he'll face his strongest opposition to-date in Garry. Prates stands 6-foot-1 with a 78-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Kansas City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Kansas City Odds: Ian Machado Garry-Carlos Prates Odds
Ian Machado Garry: -130
Carlos Prates: +110
Over 3.5 rounds: -125
Under 3.5 rounds: -105
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Why Ian Machado Garry Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Shavkat Rakhmonov – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Ian Machado Garry gained a ton of respect by not beating around the bush and choosing to fight Shavkat Rakhmonov for his chance at the No. 1 contender spot. While Garry was clearly outmatched at points throughout the fight, he managed to keep himself rather safe and didn't look to be at risk of the knockout. He proved he could hang with any of the top-level fighters in the division and he has double the experience Prates has in the UFC.
Garry is also supremely confident in his skill set as a striker and he knows his boxing is levels above that of Prates. His defense has also been solid throughout his whole career, but he'll be dealing with a true one-punch knockout artist in Prates during this one. While he's not much of a submission threat, his constant work with Charles Oliveira during his training camps has significantly improved his grappling as we've seen him show greater competence on the ground.
Why Carlos Prates Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Neil Magny – KO (left hook, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 16 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Carlos Prates has arrived as the new boogeyman of the Welterweight Division and his 4-0 start with four knockouts is reminiscent of the start we saw when Alex Pereira first arrived to the UFC. Prates fights with a similar straight-up style where he generates a ton of sneaky power from his stance. Prates also doesn't telegraph most of his punches and is able to throw combinations from unique angles without much tell. His leg kicks to the body and head are terrifying and if he's able to land clean on Garry, he's bound to put him in some serious trouble.
Carlos Prates, while erratic at times, has shown great patience as a relatively new prospect onto the scene. Much of that is thanks to his training with the Fighting Nerds Camp with fellow teammates Jean Silva and Caio Borralho constantly improving each others games. It seems as though Prates is only continuing to get better as his game rounds out, but he'll have to put serious focus into his training and making sure he's in shape to face a disciplined fighter like Garry.
Final Ian Machado Garry-Carlos Prates Prediction & Pick
This is easily one of the better Fight Night Main Events we've seen during this calendar year as both men are two of the top strikers in the division. Ian Machado Garry continues to prove himself as a potential title challenger at Welterweight while Prates is looking to continue his devastating streak of knockouts.
Garry is certainly the more disciplined fighter and his defense should hold up well against the striking of Prates. However, Prates' reckless abandon is what makes him most dangerous and it'll be interesting to see how Garry handles not being able to dictate the pace himself.
With Ian Machado Garry is the more skilled fight all-around, it's hard to bet against Carlos Prates right now and his dangerous striking skill set. Unless Garry can tie him up on the ground, I don't see Prates giving up too much in the striking and it's hard to imagine he falls behind in the overall numbers. He's also got the massive knockout upside, so we'll side with him for our final prediction as he continue to climb the rankings.
Final Ian Machado Garry-Carlos Prates Prediction & Pick: Carlos Prates (+110)
