Subscribe
Follow Us
We're back to bring you another betting prediction and pick for the UFC 308 Prelims as we turn attentions towards the featured bout in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division. Turkey's Ibo Aslan will take on the debuting Rafael Cerqueira of Brazil. Check out our UFC odds series for our Aslan-Cerqueira prediction and pick.
Ibo Aslan (13-1) notched a win in his UFC debut following a contract win on Dana White's Contender Series. He managed to win both fights via knockout, marking four-straight first-round finishes in his upcoming fights. He's billed as the slight betting underdog coming into this matchup. Aslan stands 6'3″ with a 77.5-inch reach.
Rafael Cerqueira (11-0) will be making his UFC debut as an undefeated prospect. Of his 11 wins, he's been able to finish eight before the start of the third round, winning the remaining two fights by unanimous decision. He'll see his toughest competition to-date in this upcoming fight as the slight betting favorite.
Here are the UFC 308 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 308 Odds: Ibo Aslan-Rafael Cerqueira Odds
Ibo Aslan: -108
Rafael Cerqueira: -112
Over 1.5 rounds: -105
Under 1.5 rounds: -125
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Free Trial)*
Why Ibo Aslan Will Win
Ibo Aslan will be making yet another appearance in the UFC after notching blistering finishes in his last five consecutive fights. His last fight against Anton Turkalj was the first time he was really tested and it took until the third round for him to finish with big strikes. He was visibly gassed towards the end of that bout, so improving his cardio and working on controlling position should have been a big focus for his camp heading into this fight.
ONE AND DONE FOR THE LAST OTTOMAN💥
Ibo Aslan gets the 3rd round KO to get his first UFC win! #UFCAtlanticCity pic.twitter.com/YKERGSbGrQ
— UFC (@ufc) March 31, 2024
Ibo Aslan possesses tremendous power for this weight class and he's fully capable of shutting the lights out with just one strike. While he's aware of his power, it often lends him towards a brawling style and he'll want to avoid a fire fight against this willing opponent. Aslan doesn't spend much time, if any, on the ground but his perfect 100% takedown defense rate should serve him well in keeping this fight standing and giving himself a shot to land the knockout.
Why Rafael Cerqueira Will Win
Rafael Cerqueira comes into this fight without a professional loss on his record. He's been fighting in the Brazilian regional circuits since 2019 and is now the No. 1-ranked heavyweight fighter in the country. He'll be making his debut in a big spot against a strong opponent, but Cerqueira is primed for the moment and matches up well against the striking style of Aslan. He should prove to be the faster fighter once they step into the cage, so expect Cerqueira to use a ton of movement as he slips punches and tries to cut an angle on Aslan.
Raffael Cerqueira feints the body jab to draw the right hand and connects with a spinning elbow from the front, brutal connection. pic.twitter.com/6ZZ7ELhpzc
— Feño 🏴 (@fenoxsky) October 20, 2024
Rafael Cerqueira is very willing to engage in a brawl and he must like his chances against Ibo Aslan, who's proven he can be hit through his first UFC action. Cerqueira has confidence knowing he has yet to drop a fight, so his fearless nature could serve him well when searching for a knockout here. Eight of his 11 wins have come by way of knockout and he'll be looking to continue those trends here.
Final Ibo Aslan-Rafael Cerqueira Prediction & Pick
This should be an exciting bout given both fighters' willingness to stand in the pocket and trade big shots. Ibo Aslan is the more impressive fighter physically, but his precision and accuracy could use some work heading into this bout. He can take a number of clean shots without wavering, but he won't want to press his luck against a dangerous opponent like Cerqueira.
This fight will come down to whichever fighter can make smarter decisions and cover themselves up during the chaos that will likely ensue. Cerqueira has yet to drop a fight in his professional career and he's likely to press the action and work relentlessly towards earning this knockout.
Ultimately, we'll side slightly with Rafael Cerqueira during this contest as he looks more fit to endure a three-round contest. Still, both men are at great risk of getting knocked out as I don't see this fight reaching a decision. Let's roll with Cerqueira ever so slightly as we ride the under of 1.5 rounds in this one.
Final Ibo Aslan-Rafael Cerqueira Prediction & Pick: Rafael Cerqueira (-112); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-125)
