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Iga Swiatek takes on Jessica Pegula. Our U.S. Open odds series has our Swiatek Pegula prediction, odds, and pick. Find out how to watch Swiatek Pegula.
Iga Swiatek is the No. 1 seed at this U.S. Open, but most tennis observers will tell you she is not the favorite to win this tournament. Aryna Sabalenka demolished Qinwen Zheng in the semifinals and is looking like the player to beat. Will this development actually be helpful to Iga Swiatek? Will Sabalenka's rise — in pursuit of her second major championship this year, and another hardcourt major title — actually take pressure off Swiatek? Will Iga be able to embrace an underdog role and play with more relaxation and comfort? This quarterfinal against Jessica Pegula might give us a stronger, clearer indication of whether Swiatek is ready to compete for this championship.
Swiatek's opponent in the fourth round, Liudmila Samsonova, was a big hitter but not someone who displays much consistency. The match unfolded in a very inconsistent way. Swiatek had a tough first set but then loosened up in the second set while Samsonova lost her feel for the match. Swiatek ran away with the match and survived a battle with an opponent whose power can bother her. The book on Swiatek is that big hitters who can take away time from her can bother her. Players who can can rush her and push her back behind the baseline are thorny for Swiatek. One could make the argument that getting past Samsonova is a significant hurdle for Swiatek. However, there's another line of thought to consider.
Jessica Pegula could be the toughest player Swiatek faces before a possible final against Sabalenka.
Pegula had a terrible first half of the season. She was a non-factor on tour through Wimbledon. However, she has experienced a revival in the North American summer hardcourt season. She won in Canada — a tournament where she has done very well in recent years — and then reached the final in Cincinnati before losing to Sabalenka in the final. Pegula has dramatically improved her game heading into the U.S. Open. She is currently playing like a top-10 player, which she has been in the rankings for the past two years. However, in the first half of 2024, her form had dipped below the standard she set for much of 2022 and 2023. She could have wilted, but instead, she has picked herself back up and is once again chasing a first career major semifinal. She will reach that elusive goal if she can spring the upset over Swiatek. It's a high-stakes showdown in prime time at the U.S. Open. Let's see if the match can rise to the hype.
Here are the Swiatek-Pegula U.S. Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
U.S. Open Odds: Iga Swiatek-Jessica Pegula
Game Spread:
Swiatek -4.5: -122
Pegula +4.5: -110
Moneyline:
Swiatek: -365
Pegula: +285
To Win First Set:
Swiatek: -290
Pegula: +225
Total Games In Match:
Over 20.5: -116
Under 20.5: -112
Total Games Won:
Swiatek over 12.5: -106
Swiatek under 12.5: -128
Pegula over 9.5: -110
Pegula under 9.5: -122
How to Watch U.S. Open
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET/4:15 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN/ESPN Plus
Stream: (Free Trial)
Why Iga Swiatek Will Win
The players who normally bother Swiatek the most are the pure power hitters, chiefly Sabalenka on non-clay surfaces. Jessica Pegula is not a pure power hitter. Pegula is playing well, but her playing style isn't the worst matchup for Swiatek, who will get plenty of balls to hit and will likely not be rushed. Swiatek has played better as this tournament has gone along and could max out in this match.
Why Jessica Pegula Will Win
Jessica Pegula is riding a wave of good form and is also playing quality tennis close to her hometown of Buffalo. She won Canada (Toronto and Montreal) twice and just reached the Cincinnati final. Now she's in the quarterfinals in Flushing Meadows, New York. She clearly feels at home at these tournaments. Being comfortable and relaxed counts for a lot in these situations. Win or lose, Pegula should keep this match close. She could lose 6-4, 6-4, and still cover the 4.5-game spread.
Final Iga Swiatek-Jessica Pegula Prediction & Pick
It's likely that Swiatek will win the match because Pegula won't be able to overpower her, but with a 4.5-game spread, Pegula can lose two sets by two games and still cover. We think that's a likely outcome. Take Pegula plus the spread.
Final Iga Swiatek-Jessica Pegula Prediction & Pick: Pegula +4.5 games
