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Iga Swiatek takes on Marie Bouzkova at the French Open. Our French Open odds series has our Swiatek Bouzkova prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Swiatek Bouzkova.
The 2024 French Open might have already produced its best tennis match, at least in the women's singles tournament. Iga Swiatek and Naomi Osaka have each won four major singles championships. They met in the second round of a major tournament. What an incredible and unlikely turn of events that was, in and of itself.
Then the two champions took the court.
They produced a riveting and dramatic encounter in which Osaka, never an especially consistent or successful player on clay, took a 5-2 lead in the third set and eventually had a match point against Swiatek, who has won three of the last four French Opens and is the dominant women's clay-court player on the planet, with only Aryna Sabalenka coming close to her standard in 2024. Osaka is a four-time major champion, but the idea that she would beat Swiatek did not occur to many. Keep in mind that Osaka was a +1200 underdog going into the match. Swiatek was a -3000 favorite. Osaka's over-under for games won was just 4.5 games. The markets were expecting something close to a 6-2, 6-3 win for Swiatek. Osaka came within one point of winning.
Now we have to ask ourselves: Was that match a one-off and an outlier, or is Swiatek in real trouble here? Swiatek is the obvious favorite to win this tournament, followed by Sabalenka as the second choice. Osaka played some really good tennis, but Swiatek also seemed to get nervous. She played as though she was affected by the occasion. There won't be nearly as much pre-match buzz or publicity for this match against Marie Bouzkova. Maybe Swiatek will settle down and play great tennis, but maybe she is feeling the pressure of trying to defend her title in France. This match might tell us a lot about the state of Iga Swiatek.
Here are the Iga Swiatek-Marie Bouzkova French Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
French Open Odds: Iga Swiatek-Marie Bouzkova Odds
Game spread:
Swiatek -7.5: -104
Bouzkova: +7.5: -128
Money line
Swiatek: -3500
Bouzkova: +1280
To win first set
Swiatek: -1300
Bouzkova: +770
Total Games In Match
Over 16.5: -140
Under 16.5: +106
Swiatek over 12.5 games: +215
Swiatek under 12.5 games: -300
Bouzkova over 4.5 games: -142
Bouzkova under 4.5 games: +106
How To Watch Iga Swiatek vs Marie Bouzkova
TV: Tennis Channel
Stream: Tennis Channel Plus
Time: Approx 9 a.m. ET / 6 a.m. PT (could start later if previous matches run long)
*Watch Iga Swiatek-Marie Bouzkova LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Iga Swiatek Could Cover The Spread
The champion at Roland Garros survived a huge scare from Osaka. Chances are that Swiatek will come out of the tunnel on Court Philippe Chatrier and play a great match. If Swiatek plays great, she will dominate and cover whatever spread is out there.
Why Marie Bouzkova Could Cover The Spread
Swiatek's close shave will give Bouzkova the confidence she needs to believe she can make a match of this. As long as Bouzkova wins at least five games in this match — which is not a huge number — she will cover. That seems very realistic.
Final Iga Swiatek-Marie Bouzkova Prediction & Pick
The lean here is to Swiatek against the spread. She probably will play a great match and blow this thing out. However, the aftermath of that Osaka match could create just enough questions to pull back and not bet on this match. Predicting a total blowout is always risky in tennis, because a 6-3 set — a generally routine and decisive set for the favorite — is nevertheless a score which helps the underdog cover the spread on the other side. Just sit this one out.
Final Iga Swiatek-Marie Bouzkova Prediction & Pick: Over 16.5 games
