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It is a Big 10 against Big 12 showdown as Illinois faces Kansas. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with an Illinois-Kansas prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Illinois took their first step to hitting their season win total taking care of Toledo 30-28. In the game, Illinois racked up 374 yards of offense, with 163 of them on the ground. Luke Altmyer made his first start for the Illini, going 18-26 passing for 211 yards and two scores while also running for 69 yards on the day. Replacing their star running back from last year was a team effort, as three different players had over 30 yards and nine carries. Meanwhile, the defense struggled. Dequan Finn hit them for 230 yards passing and two touchdowns while adding another score on the ground and 75 yards.
Meanwhile, the Jayhawks of Kansas took care of business against Missouri State. It was a 48-17 win for Kansas. Jalon Daniels missed the game for Kansas, but Jason Bean, the former North Texas quarterback played well in his stead. He went for 276 yards and two scores on the day while adding another 4 on the ground. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks ran in four touchdowns on the ground in the game. Devin Neal led the way with 94 yards and a score, while Sevion Morrison added another 41 yards and a touchdown. Kansas will step up in competition this week, going from an FCS opponent to a fellow Power Five foe.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Illinois -Kansas Odds
Illinois: +3 (-105)
Kansas: -3 (-115)
Over: 56.5 (-115)
Under: 56.5 (-105)
How to Watch Illinois vs. Kansas
TV: ESPN2
Stream: ESPN App
Time: 7:30 PM PM ET/ 5:30 PM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Illinois Will Cover The Spread
If Illinois is going to win, Luke Altymer has to be solid. He threw for 206 yards, averaging 7.9 yards per attempt last time out. He did have the one interception and had another pass that was turnover-worthy, but for the most part, took care of the ball. According to PFF, Altmyer also made one big-time throw, which is defined as making a throw with an excellent location downfield or into a tight window. He may need to have more of those in Illinois is going to win though.
He will also need some help from his offensive line. Last game on 32 dropbacks, Altmyer was pressured 13 times. He ended up being sacked twice and scrambled away three times while getting the ball off each other time. He was hit hard once as he threw the ball, and did have to throw one of them away as well. The line was much better on running plays. Altmyer led the team in rushing, with his long run of the day of 18 yards being on a designed run. Meanwhile, Reggie Love was solid. For the first time in his career, Love was a primary back, and he ran for 4.8 yards per carry in the game.
Further, Pat Bryant put together a solid game. On six targets, Bryant took in all six receptions, with 59 yards and a source. He did not get a lot of yards after the catch though, with just nine yards after the catch, but with an average depth of target at 8.5 yards, it was more than enough to have a solid game. There was also room for improvement in the passing game. Isaiah Williams caught just five of eight targets out of the slot. While he did not drop any balls, he went 0-2 in contested ball situations which would have increased his yardage by a lot for the day. He was solid in that department last year, so he could make some of those in this game.
The defense must be better though. They struggled heavily with the mobile quarterback from Toledo, and they will face another one in this game. When they got pressure, Finn was able to escape and get good yardage. If they allow that with Jalon Daniels, it will be a long day.
Why Kansas Will Cover The Spread
Jalon Daniels missed the last game due to back tightness, but it seemed precautionary as Kansas was facing an FCS opponent. He will be back for this one. Last year he threw for 2,014 yards with 18 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He is also a quality rusher. Last year he ran for 419 yards while scoring seven times on the ground. When he was healthy last year, the Kansas offense was great. He won his first six starts and then had Kansas with the lead against TCU before leaving the game with the injury. He was not quite the same when he came back, and lost some of his mobility. If the mobility is back, he will be hard to stop in this one. Daniels was picked by the media as the preseason player of the year, so there are high expectations for him this season.
In the backfield, Devin Neal was fantastic. First, he took in all three targets that went his way, going for 25 yards, with the average depth of target being behind the line of scrimmage and 27 yards after the catch. Second, he was great at running the ball. He was only in for 18 snaps in which the offense ran and took 13 carries. On those, he ran for 94 yards, with two rushers over 15 yards. He created five missed tackles and had 58 yards after the first contact in the game.
Still, there is room for improvement. The defense must tackle better. They missed 13 tackles in the game against Missouri State. Considering they will be facing a much better group of running backs, they have to get that in check. Still, they created 19 total pressure on the quarterback and had two interceptions. DJ Withers was amazing on the defensive line. He got three pressures on the quarterback, hitting him once and getting two balls thrown away. Meanwhile, Jereme Robinson had four pressures, with a sack and a quarterback hit.
Final Illinois-Kansas Prediction & Pick
Kansas is a sight favorite in this game. There are two major things to watch in this one. First is Kansas and their run defense. They struggled to make tackles last game, but their top rush defenders were all starters in the front seven. The second is Jalon Daniels. If he can be mobile, he is a better quarterback than DeQuan Finn from Toledo. That will be the difference in this game. Illinois' defense could not handle to mobile quarterback last game. They will struggle against against a much better offense. Kansas also has the better wide receivers and running back. Take Kansas and lay the points.
Final Illinois-Kansas Prediction & Pick: Kansas -3 (-115)
