Contender Series Week 6 continues with a fight between Iwo Baraniewski and Mahamad Aly in the light heavyweight division on Tuesday. Check out our Contender Series odds series for our Baraniewski-Aly prediction and pick.
Iwo Baraniewski (5-0) enters Tuesday’s Contender Series bout coming off three straight first-round knockouts over Kamil Stachura, Sylwester Borys, and Cemey dos Santos, showing crisp boxing and explosive ground finishes. The Polish light heavyweight has yet to suffer a professional defeat, with no recent losses on his record, as he faces Mahamed Aly to secure his contract on Tuesday night.
Mahamed Aly (4-0) enters the Contender Series after a TKO win over Tomaz Rasevic and a dominant ground performance against Guilherme Lemos, both in early 2025. The Brazilian BJJ world champion has yet to suffer an MMA defeat, with no recent losses as he faces undefeated Iwo Baraniewski this Tuesday to be the next addition to the light heavyweight division.
UFC Contender Series Odds: Iwo Baraniewski-Mahamad Aly Odds
Iwo Baraniewski: +175
Mahamad Aly: -230
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Why Iwo Baraniewski will win
- Last Fight: (W) Kamil Stachura – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 4 (3 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Iwo Baraniewski enters Week 6 as an undefeated Polish prospect with crisp boxing and proven fight IQ. His recent trio of first-round knockouts showcased lightning-fast hands, excellent distance management, and the ability to keep composed even when pressured by aggressive grapplers.
Against Mahamed Aly, Baraniewski’s takedown defense and footwork will be key to keeping the fight upright. His habit of framing off and pivoting to reset has neutralized several seasoned jiu-jitsu threats on the regional scene, forcing his opponents to strike at his preferred range—where Baraniewski’s sharp jab and right cross stand out.
While Aly carries an intimidating BJJ pedigree and has dominated on the mat, Baraniewski’s explosiveness off the break and ability to punish level changes could make Aly hesitant to shoot early takedowns. If he gets into an offensive flow, Baraniewski’s body shots and high-tempo combinations will drain Aly’s gas tank and stifle grappling attempts.
By navigating early danger, stuffing takedowns, and outlanding Aly at range, Baraniewski is poised to extend his spotless record. Expect him to pick up a late TKO or a wide decision, putting the light heavyweight division on notice Tuesday night.
Why Mahamad Aly will win
- Last Fight: (W) Jared Gooden – DEC
- Last 5: 4-0
- Finishes: 3 (3 KO/TKO)
Mahamed Aly brings elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials and a perfect 4-0 MMA record into his Contender Series matchup with Iwo Baraniewski. Aly’s recent performances featured dominant positional grappling and heavy ground control, quickly overwhelming opponents and forcing them into early defensive mistakes.
Aly’s best path to victory is leveraging his world-class takedowns and chaining them into relentless submission sequences. Even if Baraniewski is elusive early, Aly’s pressure eventually forces the fight to the mat, where his top game nullifies any scrambling attempts and gives him opportunities to work for fight-ending submissions or crushing ground-and-pound.
Baraniewski’s striking is sharp, but Aly’s comfort in chaos and composure in bad positions means he can close distance behind overhands and looping hooks. Once he grabs a clinch or secures a trip, Aly’s transitions flow seamlessly from half guard to mount, allowing him to set up his arsenal of armbars and rear-naked chokes.
With four finishes in as many fights, Aly’s power, pressure, and elite BJJ make him a major threat to any prospect. Expect Aly to survive early adversity, drag Baraniewski to the canvas, and secure a submission or TKO before the final bell Tuesday night.
Final Iwo Baraniewski-Mahamad Aly Prediction & Pick
This light heavyweight clash between Iwo Baraniewski and Mahamed Aly on Week 6 of the Contender Series promises a high-stakes duel of undefeated prospects. Baraniewski’s knockout run and technical boxing give him a clear edge in open space, forcing Aly to bridge distance and take risks with his entries.
Aly’s BJJ pedigree and relentless top pressure, however, will test Baraniewski’s takedown defense and composure on the mat. If Aly succeeds in dragging this to the ground, his submission threats and positional control could turn the bout, forcing Baraniewski to defend and fight off his back—a zone he hasn’t yet navigated at this elite level.
Baraniewski’s key to victory lies in precise footwork, lateral movement, and catching Aly on the way in with counters and body punches. Aly must impose a clinch early, chain takedowns, and start his submission attacks before Baraniewski finds his rhythm on the feet.
Given their respective strengths, expect a tense opening with Baraniewski landing sharp shots but Aly eventually breaking through, scoring takedowns, and dominating position. Mahamed Aly by late submission or ground-and-pound TKO as he showcases his world-class grappling on the Contender Series stage.
Final Iwo Baraniewski-Mahamad Aly Prediction & Pick: Mahamad Aly (-230)
