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Without much clarity in the super lightweight division, Jack Catterall (30-1) and Arnold Barboza Jr. (30-0) fight for the WBO interim 168-pound title on Feb. 15. It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Jack Catterall-Arnold Barboza Jr. prediction and pick.
Catterall, 31, will be the Co-op Arena crowd favorite as a native of Lancashire, England. Since losing a controversial decision to Josh Taylor in his lone world title fight in 2022, he has gone 4-0 to earn his second shot at the belt. Catterall's current run includes a thrilling victory over Taylor in the rematch and, most recently, a back-and-forth decision nod over Regis Prograis.
Barboza Jr., 33, is the first undefeated contender Catterall will face since his first fight with Taylor. The Long Beach native slowly emerged as a world title threat with two defenses of the WBO inter-continental belt over the past two years. Barboza is coming off a competitive decision victory over former champion Jose Ramirez in November 2024.
Here are the Jack Catterall-Arnold Barboza Jr. odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Jack Catterall-Arnold Barboza Jr. Odds
Jack Catterall: -270
Arnold Barboza Jr: +200
Over 10.5 Rounds: -600
Under 10.5 Rounds: +370
How to Watch Jack Catterall vs. Arnold Barboza Jr.
Time: 2 p.m. ET / 11 p.m. PT
Main event ring walk time (estimated): 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: DAZN
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Why Jack Catterall Will Win
Since Isaac “Pitbull” Cruz lost his belt in 2024, the super lightweight division has been without a dominant champion and divisional star. Eddie Hearn and Matchroom Boxing have done their best to make Catterall that guy and are giving him the shine again in his home country. Since becoming a legitimate threat in the division, Catterall is 8-0 fighting in England.
Despite Barboza's five-inch reach advantage, Catterall is typically the fighter with better distance and range management. Barboza often gets too caught up in chasing his opponents around the ring, while Catterall, an expert counter-striker, excels at darting in and out of range. Catterall's last two opponents were both bigger than him but struggled to time their jab and establish a distance against his southpaw stance.
Neither Catterall nor Barboza are known to be fight finishers, but the power edge will be in the former's hands. Catterall's last knockout came in 2019, but his competition has been far superior to that of Barboza. He nearly found a knockout of Prograis in his last fight, sitting the former world title challenger down twice in the ninth round.
Why Arnold Barboza Jr. Will Win
For Barboza to win this fight, volume and activity have to be his driving factors. In addition to the five-inch reach advantage Barboza will have, Catterall often falls victim to inactivity and timidity. Barboza is naturally already a higher-volume boxer but, as the taller fighter, has to be constantly working his jab.
It is difficult to tell which version of Catterall will come out, but either way, Barboza has a decently transparent path to victory. Catterall came out hot against Taylor in the rematch and gassed out late before reversing course and starting slowly against Prograis. He managed to rock Prograis late in the first round to steal it but otherwise won that fight with his late onslaught.
If Barboza is able to keep his distance, Catterall is less commanding when he is forced to break into range. That is a task easier said than done against someone like Catterall, but Barboza has enough of a reach advantage to get ahead of him early solely on production enough to cause desperation late.
Final Jack Catterall-Arnold Barboza Jr. Prediction & Pick
In many ways, Catterall and Barboza are similar fighters who have taken different paths to their matchup. Both are clinical fighters known for their high fight IQ and grit without as many knockouts on their resumes as fans may desire. Yet, the journey to their meeting is key. Both are coming off multiple air-tight decision victories, with the difference being Catterall's wins over former champions and title challengers.
Despite Barboza's size advantage, Catterall has dealt with similar obstacles in most of his previous bouts. Even as the longer man, Barboza is not one who excels in picking his shots at a distance. Catterall's entries and exits are cleaner than Barboza, who can struggle in the phone booth, has ever seen.
As a southpaw, Catterall creates a classic open-stance battle with the orthodox Barboza. Catterall has historically performed well against either stance, but Barboza is the one who tends to struggle with foot positioning and stance switching.
Everything about this fight points toward a judges' decision, with just one combined stoppage between the two since 2020.
Final Jack Catterall-Arnold Barboza Jr. Prediction & Pick: Jack Catterall by Decision (-135)
