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After making the postseason, the Kansas City Royals will look to replicate their 2024 season. Fans hope for even better baseball as we continue our MLB odds series with a Kansas City Royals over/under win total prediction and pick.
The Royals went 86-76 last season, making the playoffs as the second wildcard and stunning the Baltimore Orioles in the Wildcard Round before falling to the New York Yankees in the Divisional Round. Significantly, the Royals traded for Jonathan India, which was the only addition they made in the offseason. But they let Brady Singer go in that deal and lost Will Smith, Yuli Guriel, Michael Lorenzen, and Tommy Pham.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2025 Win Total Odds
Over 82.5 Wins: +104
Under 82.5 Wins: -128
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Why You Should Bet the Over
The Royals will look to build on their 86 wins. Ultimately, they went 8-5 last season against the Guardians; the Royals also dominated the White Sox, going 12-1 against them, including a 7-0 mark at home. Additionally, they went 7-6 against the Tigers last season. The Royals handled their division for the most part, which helped them get the wins they needed.
Cole Ragans was one of the main factors for this, delivering a high-spin 95 MHP fastball and a changeup that held right-handed hitters to a .594 OPS. Substantially, he finished with a mark of 11-9 with a 3.14 ERA. Seth Lugo is a Gold Glove winner in his 10th season and just went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA. Also, Michael Wacha went 13-8 with a 3.35 ERA over 29 starts.
Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the best players in the game and was the MLB batting champion. Overall, he finished with a batting average of .332 with 32 home runs while also stealing 31 bases. Witt also won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards, making him the first person to do that since Brandon Crawford did it in 2015. Amazingly, Witt does everything right, whether it is clobbering the baseball and putting it into the seat or driving runners home. Then, he does everything right on the field, saving possible runs from happening.
Adding India will give the Royals a legitimate hitter in front of Witt. With India setting the stage, it can make things easier for Witt and give him more chances to drive runners home. Vinnie Pasquantino is the first baseball, and he hits behind Witt. Ultimately, this is a chance for a major season for Pasquantino, who can mash after hitting .262 with 19 home runs, 97 RBIs, and 64 runs. Maikel Garcia is also solid, with plenty of potential after hitting .237 with seven home runs, 58 RBIs, and 84 runs and swiping 37 bags. Likewise, Salvador Perez also had a productive season at the plate, batting .271 with 27 home runs, 104 RBIs, and 58 runs.
The Royals will win 83 runs if their top three starting pitchers can continue to evolve and pitch well. Then, they need Witt to once again have an MVP-type season, and Pasquantino and India to also contribute.
Why You Should Bet the Under
The Royals went 6-7 against the Twins last season. They also went 2-5 against the Yankees, 2-4 against the Orioles, and 3-4 against the Astros. Ultimately, they just cannot beat the really good teams. It has been a struggle.
The rest of the rotation has some issues. What will Kris Bubic and Alec Marsh do? Are they capable of producing good numbers? So far, the answer is no, but the Royals hope they can take the next step. The bullpen also has some issues. Overall, Lucas Ereeg has a wicked slider, but he is inconsistent. John Schreiber is inconsistent, but still has some potential.
The rest of the lineup beyond Witt, Pasquantino, Perez, and India are all question marks. MJ Melendez has some power. However, he also makes bad contact. Perez may have had a good season. Yet, even he has some bad habits, as he has a 43 percent chase rate along with subpar framing on defense. Michael Massey hit .259 with 14 home runs, 45 RBIs, and 45 runs and struggled to do anything. Meanwhile, Hunter Renfroe is older and may struggle again.
The Royals will struggle to hit 83 wins because they will again struggle against good teams. Then, they will not be as consistent as they were last season and take a step back against mediocre teams.
Final Royals Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Royals had a good season. Yet, they barely made any moves in the offseason. It is tough to expect any improvements when they have not taken the steps to get better. While I do like Witt and Pasquantino, are they good enough to carry this lineup? The rotation has some issues, and while the top three are solid, it won't be enough. The Royals take a step back.
Final Royals Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 82.5 Wins: -128
