The Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva Main Card is heating up as we're set to bring you another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Middleweight (185) Division. Mexican UFC icon Kelvin Gastelum is set to take on Pennsylvania's Dustin Stoltzfus in what should be a fun matchup between UFC veterans. Check the UFC odds for our Gastelum-Stoltzfus prediction and pick.
Kelvin Gastelum (19-10) has gone 13-10-0-1 inside his UFC career dating back to 2013. With numerous highs and lows throughout his career, he's gone 2-2 over his last four with a recent decision loss to Joe Pyfer. He hopes to rebound with a win here as the moderate betting favorite. Gastelum stands 5-foot-9 with a 71.5-inch reach.
Dustin Stoltzfus (16-7) comes in with a 3-6 UFC record since 2020. He's searching for some continuity during this bout, alternating wins and losses over his last seven fights for a 3-4 record. Now, he'll look to cash-in once again as the betting underdog. Stoltzfus stands six feet tall with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the Noche UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Noche UFC Odds: Kelvin Gastelum-Dustin Stoltzfus Odds
Kelvin Gastelum: -250
Dustin Stoltzfus: +205
Over 2.5 rounds: -220
Under 2.5 rounds: +165
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Kelvin Gastelum Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Joe Pyfer – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Despite facing a much better version of Joe Pyfer on the feet, Kelvin Gastelum was once again able to display his otherworldly chin in lasting three rounds against one of the UFC's heaviest hitters. At 33 years old, Gastelum is still on the edge of his athletic prime and can easily make another run at this Middleweight title if he can string some wins together. However, his greatest pitfall has been that we're never sure which version of Kelvin Gastelum we may see during fight night.
Given the magnitude of this even and representing the Mexican fans, Gastelum should have an added sense of motivation heading into this fight. UFC President Dana White has been vocal in the past of his dissatisfaction in Gastelum's physical preparation ahead of fights, so the hope is that he comes in fighting shape and looking good on the scales.
Gastelum's biggest strength during this fight will be his ability to withstand a punch and his hand speed inside the pocket. While Stoltzfus is a strong boxer himself, Gastelum is levels above in terms of his accuracy and ability to vary his combinations. Look for Gastelum to really open up his striking if he's able to force Stoltzfus against the fence.
Why Dustin Stoltzfus Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Nursulton Ruziboev – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
Dustin Stoltzfus is hoping to finally streak together consecutive wins for the first time in his UFC career. He fell just short during his last outing as his opponent slightly out-paced him on the feet. Stoltzfus is also a very determined and willing wrestler, but he'll need to work on mounting more significant offense when he's grappling with opponents.
His last two wins came against similar brawlers in Punahele Soriano and Marc-Andre Barriault, with Stoltzfus hanging in long enough to finally land a knockout blow. If he can coax Gastelum into a similar brawl, he could like his chances in landing first and withstanding the barrage from Gastelum.
With six submission victories to his name, Stoltzfus could pose a problem if he's able to get Gastelum to the ground. Gastelum's impressive 58% career takedown defense could make it hard for him, but at least threatening the level change could open things up for Stoltzfus as he searches for an edge.
Final Kelvin Gastelum-Dustin Stoltzfus Prediction & Pick
We'll have another exciting matchup in the Middleweight Division as Dustin Stoltzfus and Kelvin Gastelum meet atop this Main Card. Both men come into this fight following a loss, so they'll both be determined to get once back in the win column. The biggest question during this fight will be the conditioning of Kelvin Gastelum ahead of this appearance. If he's sluggish with his cardio and activity, Stoltzfus will be a live underdog during the later rounds.
Still, I feel as though this moment means something to Gastelum and he'll take his preparation into this fight seriously. Dustin Stoltzfus is a very game opponent, so Gastelum will have to remain active through all three rounds to have a chance.
We'll give the final edge to Kelvin Gastelum thanks to his power and hand speed. We can't ignore the betting odds in this one and my likely guess is that this fight sees a decision.
Final Kelvin Gastelum-Dustin Stoltzfus Prediction & Pick: Kelvin Gastelum (-250); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-220)
