On Monday, the Tampa Bay Lightning will head to Eastern Canada to face the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. It's an Atlantic Division showdown as we share our NHL odds series and make a Lightning-Maple Leafs prediction and pick.

The Lightning lost 5-4 to the Ottawa Senators on Saturday at the Canadian Tire Centre. Initially, they fell behind 2-0 but battled back to tie the game. But they allowed two goals and could not complete the comeback.

The Maple Leafs lost 4-1 to the New York Rangers on Saturday at Scotiabank Arena. Unfortunately, they put themselves in a hole and could not solve goalie Igor Shesterkin.

Here are the Lightning-Maple Leafs NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NHL Odds: Lightning-Maple Leafs Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning: +1.5 (-205)

Moneyline: +122

Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+168)

Moneyline: -146

Over: 6.5 (-108)

Under: 6.5 (-112)

How To Watch Lightning vs Maple Leafs 

Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PM PT

TV: NHL Network and FDS

Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)

Why the Lightning Could Cover the Spread/Win

  • Nikita Kucherov has scored 19 goals and 25 assists through 35 games against the Maple Leafs.
  • Victor Hedman has two goals and six assists with a plus-minus of +4 over 10 games against the Maple Leafs.
  • Jake Guentzel has five goals and eight assists over 18 games against the Maple Leafs.
  • Andre Vasilevskiy is 15-10-2 with a 2.57 goals-against average and a save percentage of .921 against the Maple Leafs.
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The Lightning have averaged four goals a game, scoring four in each game over the first four contests. Significantly, Kuchervov has led the Bolts with seven goals and two assists. Hedman has distributed four assists. Also, Huentzel has tallied one goal and four assists. Nicholas Paul has added one goal and three assists while winning 11 faceoffs and losing eight. Meanwhile, Brayden Point has tallied two goals and two assists while also winning 21 draws and losing 25.

Vasilevskiy has had a strong start to the season, going 3-1 with a 2.52 goals-against average and a save percentage of .901. The defense has allowed two goals per game but has struggled to kill the penalty, ranking 24th.

The Lightning will cover the spread if the offense can continue to find seams through the defense and take some good shots at the net. Then, they need to prevent the “Big Four” from scoring.

Why the Maple Leafs Could Cover the Spread/Win

  • Matthews is 12 goals and 13 assists with a plus-minus of +0 over 22 games against the Lightning.
  • Mitch Marner has seven goals and 16 assists with a plus-minus of +2 over 23 games against the Lightning.
  • Marner has three goals and 13 assists with a plus-minus of +12 over his last 10 games against the Lightning.
  • Joseph Wall is 3-1 with a 2.22 goals-against average and a save percentage of .933.

Auston Matthews finally scored on Wednesday and will come into this one with two goals and two assists while also doing well in the faceoff circle, winning 37 draws and losing 35. Meanwhile, Max Domi has tallied five assists while also winning 22 draws and losing 19. Marner has added one goal and four assists. Likewise, Oliver Ekman-Larsson has been strong, with four assists. William Nylander has tallied three goals and one assist. Lastly, John Tavares has scored two goals. Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares make up the Big Four and all are essential to an offense that is averaging three goals per game.

Joseph Wall has not played a single second this season. However, he is practicing, and there is a good chance he may start this Monday in front of the home crowd against one of the most dangerous opponents.

The Maple Leafs will cover the spread if the Big Four can garner some scoring chances. Then, the defense must continue to play well as they have allowed two goals per game.

Final Lightning-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick

The Lightning are 2-2 against the spread, while the Maple Leafs are 3-2 against the odds. Also, the Bolts are 1-1 against the spread on the road, while the Leafs are 2-1 against the odds at home. Tampa Bay and Toronto split the season series last season. Furthermore, the teams combined for over 6.5 goals in three of four games. The Bolts and Leafs have also split the last 10 games. The Maple Leafs have also gone 3-2 against the Bolts in the last five games at the Scotiabank Arena.

The Lightning were 2-0 against the spread in the two games in Toronto last season. Ultimately, these games are always competitive. But the Lightning always seem to do better in Toronto against the Maple Leafs than they do at home. Consequently, I think this will have a similar result as the Lightning play the Maple Leafs tight and cover the spread on the road.

Final Lightning-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning: +1.5 (-205)