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After a 1-1 draw in the first leg, Lille and Dortmund face off with a chance to advance to the quarterfinals. It is time to continue our Champions League odds series with a Lille-Dortmund prediction and pick.
In the first leg, these two played a tight game. Dortmund took the early lead, scoring in the 22nd minute on a goal from Karim Adeyemi. Still, Lille would tie the game. Hakon Arnar Haraldsson scored in the 68th minute to tie the game. Both teams had just one shot on target in the game, both scoring on their lone shot, as the game would end in a 1-1 draw.
Here are the Lille-Dortmund Champions League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Champions League Odds: Lille-Dortmund Odds
Lille: +165
Dortmund: +165
Draw: +230
Over 2.5 goals: -112
Under 2.5 goals: -108
How to Watch Lille vs. Dortmund
Time: 1:45 PM ET/ 10:45 AM PT
TV: Paramount+
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Why Lille Will Win
Lille has scored in 35 of 40 total fixtures this year, scoring 65 goals in the process. That is good for 1.63 goals per game for Lille this year. In UCL play, they have scored in regular time in ten of 12 fixtures overall. In the process, they have scored 22 goals, good for 1.83 goals per game in UCL play. Lille has scored in all six of their home games so far in UCL play, scoring 15 goals in the process. That is good for 2.5 goals per game at home this year.
Jonathan David has been dominant for Lille so far this year. He has 14 goals and three assists so far in Ligue 1 play. Meanwhile, he has six goals and two assists, with two goals via the penalty kick so far in UCL play. Meanwhile, Osame Sahraoui has two goals and an assist so far in UCL play, while he has three goals and three assists in domestic league play. Both Hakon Arnar Haraldsson and Ngal'Ayel Mukau have also scored twice in UCL play.
Lille has been solid on defense overall. In their 40 total fixtures, they have allowed 42 goals. Lille has allowed just 13 goals in 12 fixtures in UCL play. Further, they have been solid at home on defense. Lille has allowed just five goals over their six games with two clean sheets at home.
Why Dortmund Will Win
Dortmund has scored well this year, scoring in 32 of 38 games overall. They have scored 75 goals in those 38 games, good for 1.97 goals per game. They have also been great in UCL play, scoring in ten of 11 fixtures so far this year. Further, they have scored 26 goals this year, good for 2.36 goals per game. Dortmund has been solid on the road. They have scored in all five games on the road in UCL play, scoring 12 goals in the process. That is good for 2.4 goals per game.
Serhou Guirassy has led the way for Dortmund this year. He has been dominant in UCL play, scoring ten goals with three assists this year. Further, he has 14 goals and an assist in Bundesliga play. Meanwhile, Jamie Gittens has been solid. In Bundesliga play, he has seven goals and three assists on an expected goal total of just 2.9. Gittens has scored four goals on an expected 1.6 goals in UCL play. Finally, Karim Adeyemi has also been solid in UCL play. Adeyemi has scored five times with an assist in UCL play.
Dortmund has been solid on defense this year, giving up 53 goals in their 38 total fixtures. That is good for 1.39 goals per game. In UCL play, they have allowed just 13 goals, good for 1.18 per game. Five of those 13 were scored by Real Madrid. They have also been solid on defense on the road. They have given up seven goals on the road this year, but have three clean sheets, with five of the seven goals coming in that Real Madrid game.
Final Lille-Dortmund Prediction & Pick
Dortmund has scored well on the road so far in UCL play, scoring 12 goals over their five road games. Further, all five of the games have seen the total go over 2.5 goals in the game. Meanwhile, Lille has scored in all six of their home games, and has seen half of their games go over 2.5 goals. Further, when the opponent has scored against Lille at home in UCL play, the total has gone over 2.5 goals in three of four games. With this being a 1-1 game on the aggregate, expect a lot of pressing if a team scores. Both teams played very tight in the first game, and were more defensive focused. Dortmund will find the back of the net in this one, so expect the total to go over in this game.
Final Lille-Dortmund Prediction & Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-112)
