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PFL World Tournament: Continues on the prelims with a fight between Mads Burnell and Jay Jay Wilson in the lightweight division. Check out our PFL odds series for our Burnell-Wilson prediction and pick.
Mads Burnell (20-6) comes into this first-round matchup with Jay Jay Wilson riding back-to-back unanimous decision wins over Elvin Espinoza and Clay Collard in the PFL. After a submission loss to Michael Dufort, Burnell has rebounded impressively and now looks to keep his momentum going this Friday night.
Jay Jay Wilson (10-1) enters this first-round matchup with Mads Burnell riding back-to-back wins, including a unanimous decision over Mansour Barnaoui and a split decision against Vladimir Tokov. Now, “The Maori Kid” looks to keep his momentum rolling and make a statement in his PFL debut this Friday night.
Here are the PFL World Tournament Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
PFL World Tournament Odds: Mads Burnell-Jay Jay Wilson Odds
Mads Burnell: +154
Jay Jay Wilson: -185
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Why Mads Burnell Will Win
Mads Burnell is poised to secure a victory over Jay Jay Wilson this Friday in their PFL World Championship first-round matchup, thanks to his elite grappling and recent momentum. Burnell, a former Cage Warriors champion and European BJJ gold medalist, has rebounded impressively from a tough submission loss earlier in 2024, notching back-to-back unanimous decision wins over Clay Collard and Elvin Espinoza. His ability to control the pace, mix in effective takedowns, and maintain positional dominance has been on full display, with seven takedowns on just nine attempts in his last two fights. Burnell’s ground game is both suffocating and dynamic, allowing him to transition seamlessly between control, ground-and-pound, and submission threats.
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While Jay Jay Wilson is a dangerous finisher with a 70% win finish rate and a well-rounded skill set, Burnell’s experience against high-level opposition and his relentless pressure give him the edge. Wilson has struggled in the past against strong grapplers, and Burnell’s ability to dictate where the fight takes place could neutralize Wilson’s striking and submission attempts. If Burnell can implement his game plan, expect him to grind out another decision or potentially find a late submission, advancing to the PFL semifinals and solidifying his status as a lightweight contender.
Why Jay Jay Wilson Will Win
Jay Jay Wilson has all the tools to hand Mads Burnell a defeat this Friday in their PFL World Championship first-round matchup. Wilson, known as “The Maori Kid,” boasts a 10-1 record with an impressive 70% finish rate, demonstrating his ability to end fights both on the feet and the ground. His recent wins over Mansour Barnaoui and Vladimir Tokov showcased his evolving skill set, blending sharp striking with opportunistic grappling. Wilson’s athleticism and reach advantage at lightweight allow him to keep opponents at bay, while his submission game remains a constant threat if the fight hits the mat.
Against Burnell, Wilson’s path to victory lies in his ability to maintain distance and capitalize on striking opportunities. Burnell’s aggressive forward movement and reliance on closing the distance can leave him vulnerable to counters and knees, areas where Wilson excels. If Wilson can stuff early takedown attempts and force Burnell to strike at range, his speed and precision could frustrate the Dane and open up finishing opportunities. With his confidence surging and a well-rounded arsenal, Wilson is poised to outmaneuver Burnell, either by landing a decisive shot or outpointing him over three rounds to advance in the PFL tournament.
Final Mads Burnell-Jay Jay Wilson Prediction & Pick
Mads Burnell vs. Jay Jay Wilson is a fascinating stylistic matchup in the PFL lightweight tournament. Burnell, a Danish standout with a 20-6 record, brings relentless pressure, high-level grappling, and a knack for grinding out tough decisions. His recent wins over Clay Collard and Elvin Espinoza showcased his ability to control opponents with takedowns and positional dominance, making him a difficult puzzle for any lightweight to solve. Wilson, at 10-1, is a dynamic finisher with a 70% finish rate, blending sharp striking with a dangerous submission game. He’s coming off back-to-back wins and has the reach and athleticism to trouble Burnell at range.
The key to this fight will be whether Burnell can consistently close the distance and impose his grappling, or if Wilson can keep the fight standing and use his speed and precision to land damaging shots. Expect Burnell to push forward, absorb some early offense, and look to wear Wilson down with clinch work and top control. However, Wilson’s explosiveness and submission threat off his back make him live for a finish at any moment. Ultimately, this could be a razor-close contest, but Burnell’s experience and pressure may earn him a narrow decision win.
Final Mads Burnell-Jay Jay Wilson Prediction & Pick: Mads Burnell (+154)
