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The Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday in Florida. It's an Atlantic Division showdown at Amalie Arena as we share our NHL odds series and make a Maple Leafs-Lightning prediction and pick.
The Maple Leafs are coming off a 5-1 loss to the Florida Panthers. Meanwhile, the Lightning are coming off a Friday night game against the Nashville Predators.
The Lightning leads the head-to-head series 35-31. Recently, the Leafs bounced the Bolts 5-2 on October 22, 2024, at Scotiabank Arena. The Maple Leafs are 6-3-1 over the past 10 games against the Lightning. However, the Lightning are 3-1-1 over the past five games against the Maple Leafs at Amalie Arena.
Here are the Maple Leafs-Lightning NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NHL Odds: Maple Leafs-Lightning Odds
Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+186)
Moneyline: -128
Tampa Bay Lightning: +1.5 (-230)
Moneyline: +106
Over: 6.5 (+102)
Under: 6.5 (-124)
How To Watch Maple Leafs vs Lightning
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
TV: ESPN + and FDSS
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why the Maple Leafs Could Cover the Spread/Win
There is a chance that we could see Auston Matthews return, as he recently logged his first full practice in weeks. Despite not having him for weeks, the Leafs have led the Atlantic Division and currently are clinging to a one-point lead over the Panthers. Imagine what getting him back would do for the offense.
The Leafs are only 18th in goals and 25th in assists this season. Likewise, their shooting has been down as they are just 21st in shooting percentage. Having an extra man has not helped, as the Maple Leafs are 16th on the powerplay.
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While Matthews has been out, Mitchell Marner has carried the load. Significantly, he has tallied nine goals and 20 assists, including four markers on the powerplay. William Nylander has also thrived. So far, he has batted in 14 goals and distributed 10 assists while also converting five goals on the powerplay. John Tavares has remained steady, with nine goals and 11 assists, converting three markers on the powerplay. No one else in this offense has contributed to that level so getting Matthews back would be amazing.
Anthony Stolarz has been the starting goalie for most of the season and comes into this game with a record of 7-4-2 with a 2.33 goals-against average and a save percentage of .921. However, the Leafs might go with Joseph Woll, who is 5-2 with a 2.00 goals-against average and a save percentage of .922. Either goalie would be a good option to back up a defense that is fourth in goals against. Likewise, they would back a penalty kill that is eighth in the league.
The Maple Leafs will cover the spread if the offense can set up some shooting lanes and find ways to grab the lead early. Then, the defense must tighten up and prevent the Lightning from striking.
Why the Lightning Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Lightning failed to beat the Washington Capitals earlier this week, even after Charlie Lindgren gifted them a goal. Regardless, the Thanksgiving holiday is over, and the Lightning are focused on getting things right as they hover around the wildcard standings in the Eastern Conference. It starts with the offense.
The Lightning are sixth in goals and assists. Likewise, they have the second-best shooting percentage in the NHL. Their powerplay has remained stout, as they are eighth in the powerplay.
Nikita Kucherov remains elite, with 12 goals and 21 assists, including one tally on the powerplay. Also, Brandon Hagel has added nine goals and 17 assists. Anthony Cirelli has also thrived with nine goals and 13 assists. Furthermore, Jake Guentzel has tallied nine goals and 12 assists.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is the starting goalie for this one (assuming Jonas Johansson handles the Predators on Friday). Vasilevskiy is 10-7-1 with a 2.40 goals-against average and a save percentage of .910. Significantly, he will back up a defense that is 12th in goals against. But the penalty kill has been abysmal, as they rank 23rd in the league.
Final Maple Leafs-Lightning Prediction & Pick
The Maple Leafs are 13-9 against the spread as they head into the showdown with the Bolts, while the Lightning are 8-13 coming into the action. Likewise, the Leafs are 4-5 against the spread on the road, while the Lightning are 5-6 against the spread at home. The Leafs have struggled to hit the over as they are just 8-12-2 in that scenario, while the Bolts are 10-9-2.
The Leafs have had two days to prepare for this game, while the Lightning will be coming off a back-to-back as they play in Nashville against the Predators. It's tough to do that, especially when you face one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. For this reason, I am rolling with the Leafs to cover the spread on the road.
Final Maple Leafs-Lightning Prediction & Pick: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+186)
