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The Saint Mary's Gaels are set to face the UCLA Bruins. Check out our March Madness odds series, which includes our Saint Mary's UCLA prediction, odds, and pick.
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The Saint Mary's Gaels looked excellent in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The March Madness odds might not capture just how well Saint Mary's performed in a blowout of Indiana. Saint Mary's beat Gonzaga, the No. 1 overall seed in this tournament, earlier this season. That should tell you something about the level at which the Gaels can play defense. That level of defense flummoxed Indiana from start to finish, and in a tournament where one has to play a game two days after a first game on a given weekend, the easy win allowed coach Randy Bennett to rest his starters and get them fresh for UCLA. This is something to think about when considering a Saint Mary's UCLA prediction.
One very interesting question attached to Saint Mary's is that its blowout could be a product of Indiana's brutal travel schedule. The Hoosiers had to go to Dayton to play Wyoming in the First Four on Tuesday. Then they had to fly all the way across the country to Portland for an early-evening game against Saint Mary's. People will question if Saint Mary's scored its blowout mostly because of its own quality, or because Indiana was physically and mentally fatigued. That is part of the calculus in a Saint Mary's UCLA pick.
UCLA was down eight points to Akron midway through the second half of its first-round game. Then the Bruins got big 3-point baskets from Jules Bernard and Tyger Campbell. Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez had difficult nights, and UCLA struggled to finish layups and other shots within six to eight feet of the basket. It's unlikely that the Bruins will struggle as much within six feet of the rim in this game, which has to give UCLA coach Mick Cronin plenty of optimism for this game. Saint Mary's has a tough defense, but UCLA has skilled shotmakers. This battle of formidable West Coast programs should be hard-fought to the very end.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Saint Mary's-UCLA odds:
March Madness Odds: Saint Mary's-UCLA Odds
Saint Mary's: +3 (-110)
UCLA: -3 (-110)
Over: 126 (-110)
Under: 126 (-110)
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Why Saint Mary's Could Cover the Spread
This feels like a game which is going to go down to the final minute as a one-possession game. The simple fact that UCLA is favored by three points gives Saint Mary's a small but real edge if you are thinking about picking against the spread. Beyond that, SMC is playing better basketball. UCLA needs Juzang, who is not 100-percent healthy, to step up and deliver, but Saint Mary's has shown in its win over Gonzaga how well it defends good scorers.
Why UCLA Could Cover the Spread
The Bruins shot horribly within six feet of the basket against Akron and still won. Getting through a game despite shooting poorly bodes very well for UCLA in its next game.
Final Saint Mary's-UCLA Prediction & Pick
UCLA and Saint Mary's are likely to play a rockfight in the high 50s. This will be a close game, and for that reason alone, Saint Mary's — getting three points — is the better play.
Final Saint Mary's-UCLA Pick: Saint Mary's +3
